Cowboys say they’ll have a historic offense. But what does NFL history say about that?
Should the Dallas Cowboys meet the expectations of receiver Amari Cooper, it would be historic. And it would still not result in a ring.
Cooper said early in training camp that he expects the Dallas Cowboys “to have three 1,000-yard receivers this year” — himself, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb.
About that.
“They are putting Kansas City Chiefs-like wide receivers on the field this year. CeeDee Lamb was my favorite receiver coming out [in the draft],” said NBC NFL analyst Cris Collinsworth on a recent conference call when I asked him what he expects to see from the 2020 Cowboys.
“There certainly were plenty of other great ones in this draft, but he was my favorite. And you pair him up with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup? I think you’re just going to see them go wide open.”
With the Cowboys having borrowed the draft philosophy of former Detroit Lions’ GM Matt Millen and invest several high draft picks on wide receivers, Cooper’s expectation adds up.
This math does not.
With former first-round pick Ezekiel Elliott in his prime, the expectation remains that he will be at least a 1,000-yard running back.
By Cooper’s expectations, the Cowboys would have a rusher and three receivers who would all top 1,000 yards.
According to our friends at the Elias Sports Bureau, the odds of this happening are not good. The odds of this happening and it translating into a Super Bowl season are worse.
NFL teams with 1,000 yard receivers and a 1,000 yard rusher
We live in an era of passing and points, but what the Cowboys expect is as common as global pandemic. Twice in the history the NFL has a team had a 1,000 yard rusher and three receivers eclipse 1,000 yards.
The 1995 Atlanta Falcons under coach June Jones, and the Indianapolis Colts in 2004 with quarterback Peyton Manning.
The Falcons quarterback was Jeff George. Running back Craig “Ironhead” Heyward ran for 1,083 yards. Wide receivers Terance Mathis and Bert Emanuel both had 1,039 yards exactly. The catch on that team was former Texas star, Eric Metcalf, a running back who could play receiver. He led the Falcons with 1,189 receiving yards.
Despite all of this offense, the Falcons (9-7) were lost in the wild-card round by the Green Bay Packers. Score: 37-20.
In 2004, the Colts had one of the best offenses ever with Manning throwing 49 touchdowns, an NFL record at the time. Running back Edgerrin James ran for more than 1,500 yards, and receivers Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley all went over 1,000 yards receiving.
The Colts (12-4) won their divisional round playoff game, and then lost 20-3 in the AFC title game to the Patriots in New England.
Hall of Fame quarterbacks, running backs and historic offenses did not reach a Super Bowl.
Cowboys had prolific numbers in 2019
As we all saw with the Cowboys last year, individually wonderful seasons don’t necessarily lead to a Super Bowl ring. Or a Super Bowl appearance. Or winning a playoff game. Or making the playoffs. Or could even bothered to have a winning record.
Dak Prescott threw for 4,900 yards, Zeke ran for more than 1,300 yards, and Cooper and Gallup both went over 1,000 yards. Receiver Randall Cobb also had 828 receiving yards.
All of those stats, the end result was an 8-8 season, no playoffs and a dismissed head coach.
The Cowboys often, impressively, racked up some nice numbers because they were behind and had to throw it against soft coverage.
When the Cowboys score matters.
Take, for example, the Cowboys’ game against the Bears in Chicago, on a clear and windless evening, on Dec. 5 last year. Dak passed for 334 yards, and Gallup had 109 receiving yards.
The teams were 6-6, and the playoffs were available to both. The Cowboys fell behind 24-7 in the third quarter, and were never in this game. They slapped on lip gloss and got their hair did in the fourth quarter to only lose 31-24.
“I’m actually a little bit more curious about what they’re going to do on the defensive side than I am the offensive side,” Collinsworth said. “On offense, you have to assume that it won’t be that much different with [offensive coordinator] Kellen Moore. There will be the introduction of a few new schemes or whatever.
“I’m going to take a guess that we might see a little bit of a role for [running back] Tony Pollard this year. I thought that he could give them — he’s such a different feeling back, and maybe a little bit of a receiving threat coming out that potentially could make this [team] a little bit different.”
Over the last several years the Cowboys have invested heavily on offense, and as a result that’s the identity of their team.
They really don’t need three 1,000 yard receivers.
History suggests if they do it, the Cowboys will have a good, not a Super Bowl, season.
