Jon Daniels’ ‘minor’ problem remains a major issue for Texas Rangers
Looking at the timeline of other MLB franchises that have won, enough time has passed that the Texas Rangers should be ready to make a run at first place, or a wild card.
Unless MLB commissioner Rob Manfred makes every team eligible for the playoffs, which could happen, the 2020 Texas Rangers are not making the postseason.
The root of the Rangers’ problem isn’t in the money they spend but how they spend it, and specifically a minor league system that is not producing enough quality major league players.
Of the plausible indictments lobbed at GM Jon Daniels, the franchise’s struggle to produce their own pitchers remains 1 and 1a, and 1z.
Gifted the chance to rebuild the Texas Rangers twice, JD and his staff simply have to do a better job in this area. As long as the ownership group led by Ray Davis and Bob Simpson remain in power, it will not lavishly spend on high dollar free agents.
The only way the Rangers will contend again is to develop their own young stars.
A Reasonable Timeline
Teams such as the Indians, Braves, Twins, Diamondbacks, Rays, A’s, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals and a handful of others have built successful teams that made the playoffs this century. Then they have all suffered through the “overhaul” process, and rebuilt themselves into winners again.
The average length of time for a rebuild, based on these teams, is about four years. Build a good team, open the winning window for a three to six years, and go through the process again.
Teams such as the Mariners, White Sox, Reds and Padres ruin the curve because they’re awful. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox ruin the curve in the other direction because they are willing, and able, to buy off mistakes.
The Rangers’ last winning season was 2016, when they won the American League West. It was their second consecutive appearance in the American League Division Series.
According to the calendar, they should be coming out of their transition. JD said at the 2019 season-ending press conference that he expects this team to contend for the postseason this year.
If they do, it will be an “upset.”
The Rangers’ ‘Minor’ Problem
Between 2010 and 2016, their top minor league hitters were Engel Beltre, Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara. Their top pitchers were Luke Jackson, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Ariel Jurado, Yohander Mendez and Kyle Cody.
Gallo is the top player among these men, and we’re not quite sure what to make of him just yet.
Their first-round picks between 2010 and 2017 are outfielder Jake Skole, pitcher Kevin Matthews, outfielder Lewis Brinson, pitcher Alex Gonzalez, pitcher Luis Ortiz, pitcher Dillon Tate, pitcher Cole Ragans and outfielder Bubba Thompson.
None of those players is on the Rangers’ 40-man roster.
Reliever Jose Leclerc, signed as an undrafted free agent in 2010, is their top pitching prospect who “hit.”
Spare me the Cole Hamels trade. In 2015, JD sent the Phillies these top five prospects:
▪ Catcher Jorge Alfaro, who was eventually dealt and is now a decent catcher for the Miami Marlins. He is likely the best of the bunch.
▪ Outfielder Nick Williams looked to be a promising player for the Phillies’ future in 2018, when he hit 17 home runs with 50 RBI. In ‘19, he was essentially demoted as he batted .151 in 67 games.
▪ Pitcher Jake Thompson pitched three ish seasons in Philly, and played last season in Japan.
▪ Pitcher Alec Asher, who has a 5.42 ERA with three big league teams.
▪ Pitcher Jerad Eickhoff, who is 21-30 for the Phillies with a 4.15 ERA in 80 career games.
By dealing these prospects the Rangers did not gut their chances at success in ‘17, ‘18 and beyond. These prospects were the type of “hits” this franchise has had for about eight years running.
Current prospects provide hope
The club went through a re-invention process after the 2018 season, which essentially had Daniels in front of a dry erase board asking all of his “baseball people” what they needed to do differently. The franchise basically overhauled their minor league developmental practices, emphasizing more analytical use in any way possible.
For whatever the reason, since the franchise moved from D.C to Arlington in 1972, the Texas Rangers have struggled to consistently produce their own starting pitching. They have had two spurts, and that’s about it.
Manager Chris Woodward, who came over from a Los Angeles Dodgers franchise that spends money like its sand and is also considered a leader in player development, is pleased.
“The entire organization, I feel really, really confident right now that hitting and pitching, the mindset, expectations we are laying out from the top down is very consistent,” Woodward said. “The people we hired on the minor league side, I don’t know how much longer we’re going to have these guys. Somebody is going to take them to the big leagues unless we promote them.”
The club took the analytical concepts applied with success by the Dodgers, Houston Astros and others to re-do their own player development.
They like prospects such as pitchers Joe Palumbo and Taylor Hearn, catcher Sam Huff and infielders Nick Solak and Josh Jung.
At the present, however, they’re just prospects.
“It’s totally changed,” Palumbo said on Sunday after he threw two scoreless innings in a spring training game against the Seattle Mariners. “It can be a lot, but it’s all there.”
Sounds great. Results help.
The Rangers need a young star, and young talent to make this go.
“If I was a fan that’s what I’d be looking for, for sure,” Woodward said. “Sometimes you hit on three or four guys, and you’re rolling. I do think we are playing the odds better now, not just hoping things happen but making them happen.”
The timeline says the Texas Rangers should be finishing up their rebuild and ready to contend, but if they do it will be an upset.
This story was originally published February 24, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
