Per NFL precedent, the Dallas Cowboys retaining Jason Garrett is an awful idea
We are into 2020 and, just as expected, Jason Garrett remains the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys.
His departure may be a mere formality, but until it’s done assume he will remain the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys until the NFL goes into bankruptcy.
Cowboys owner/GM and Pro Football Hall of Famer Jerry Jones can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants. He will make this decision when he’s good and ready, and that is not this second.
Every moment Garrett lasts, he is that much closer to remaining in a job that any rational, logical thinker would think he would have lost by now.
But, as seen in the past, do not rule out Jerry’s emotions from making this final decision. As such, do not rule out Jason Garrett remaining, even if that idea prompts you to throw your bedroom TV through your living room TV.
There is recent NFL precedent that coaches everyone thought were going to be dumped stayed on, which played out to be a disaster.
If Jerry is going to retain Garrett, there is a dangerous precedent in bringing back the coach everyone assumed was fired.
The Case of Marvin Lewis with the Bengals
Garrett’s record, and tenure, are often compared to Marvin Lewis of the Cincinnati Bengals. Both are long-tenured coaches in the same spot, guys who won a lot of regular-season games, but were haunted by postseason disappointment.
In the final month of the 2017 season, the Bengals were thought to be done with Lewis after 15 seasons. The team had finished 13-18-1 in ‘16 and ‘17 combined, and it was clear that even a loyal owner like Mike Brown had to finally part ways with Lewis.
Instead, however, Brown surprised everyone and gave Lewis a two-year extension. In 2018, the Bengals finished 6-10 and Brown finally fired Lewis.
The Bengals have a similar front office structure to the Cowboys in that both are family-run organizations where decisions are often made by a consensus of people rather than conventional model.
Lewis’ tenure has some uncomfortable similarities to Garrett’s time with the Cowboys, namely the former won zero playoff games and the latter has two.
Under Lewis, the Bengals improved and became a relevant franchise again for the first time in more than a decade. The relationship was over in 2017, and the decision to bring him back in 2018 was a waste of time.
Brown finally had to go against his loyalty, and cheapness, and acknowledge a fan base he insults almost daily were not going to take another year of Marvin Lewis.
The case of Chuck Pagano and the Colts
Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay handed coach Chuck Pagano a game ball following a season-finale win in 2017, and fired him almost immediately.
Pagano should never have been brought back for that season, and Irsay had to admit the mistake.
In 2016, the Colts finished their second consecutive 8-8 season and the relationship between Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson was strained. One or both was thought to be fired.
The team fired Grigson, and retained the fan-favorite, cancer-beater in Pagano. Irsay should have fired both.
The team finished 4-12 in 2017, and Pagano was out. He should have been out after 2016, but Irsay liked Pagano and his emotions made the call.
The challenge in retaining Jason Garrett
The one element to a Garrett return that is appealing is the team’s track record in his tenure. Under JG, they follow dud years with good ones.
Beginning in 2014, the team has won at least 10 games and made the playoffs every other year. By that chart, they are due for 10 wins and a playoff appearance in 2020.
But the Cowboys did not extend Garrett after the 2018 season because they want more. They want more than a divisional round playoff loss. They want consecutive playoff years for the first time since 2006 and ‘07.
They didn’t come close.
If the Cowboys bring back Garrett, they are tacitly saying the results are acceptable.
The smart money is that the team will dump Garrett, but this is the Dallas Cowboys. This is Jerry Jones. He has a lot of money, but that doesn’t mean it’s always smart.
Recent NFL history says retaining Garrett in this situation is a terrible idea, but when Jerry, and his emotions, are making the decisions ... well, they fire Jimmy Johnson.
