Too-early Cowboys prediction: Projecting wins and losses after schedule release
While we had already known the 2026 opponents for the Dallas Cowboys when the 2025 regular season ended, we now know the exact schedule with dates and times after Thursday night’s schedule release.
The exact order offers a lot of discussion, especially with the Cowboys playing an early season game in Brazil. In terms of strength of schedule, Dallas already had one of the toughest in the NFL with notable road trips to take on the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers. But with it now determined how those games will line up with the others, let’s predict how the season will shake out for the Cowboys.
- Week 1: at Giants (Sun. 7:20 p.m.) - WIN
- Week 2: vs. Commanders (Sun. 3:25 p.m.) - WIN
- Week 3: vs. Ravens (Sun. 3:25 p.m. in Brazil) - WIN
- Week 4: at Texans (Sun. 12 p.m.) - LOSS
- Week 5: vs. Buccaneers (Thurs. 7:15 p.m.) - LOSS
- Week 6: at Packers (Sun. 7:20 p.m.) - WIN
- Week 7: at Eagles (Mon. 7:15 p.m) - LOSS
- Week 8: vs. Cardinals (Sun. 12 p.m.) - WIN
- Week 9: at Colts (Sun. 12 p.m.) - WIN
- Week 10: vs. 49ers (Sun. 3:25 p.m.) - LOSS
- Week 11: vs. Titans (Sun. 12 p.m.) - WIN
- Week 12: vs. Eagles (Thurs. 3:30 p.m.) - WIN
- Week 13: at Seahawks (Mon. 7:15 p.m.) - LOSS
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at Rams (Sun. 3:25 p.m.) - LOSS
- Week 16: vs. Jaguars (Sun. 7:20 p.m.) - WIN
- Week 17: vs. Giants (Sun. 12 p.m.) - LOSS
- Week 18: at Commanders (TBD) - WIN
Prediction: 10-7
The stretch that will define the season
We knew that whatever games the Brazil trip was sandwiched between was going to be a challenge from a logistical and recovery standpoint. The NFL schedule makers didn’t do Dallas any favors.
After returning on the nearly 11-hour flight from Rio de Janeiro, the Cowboys will go right back on the road for a short trip to Houston to take on the Texans at 12 p.m. the following Sunday before a quick turnaround for a Thursday night matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That stretch will be incredibly difficult on the players’ bodies.
It doesn’t get easier from there. While the Cowboys will have 10 days of rest before taking on the Packers, the back-to-back road swing of Green Bay and the Philadelphia Eagles will be a true litmus test of where the team could be headed.
Just getting out of that first seven-week stretch with a winning record would offer a lot of optimism about what’s ahead. But if the Cowboys get behind the 8-ball early on, a midseason run would be required to get back into the postseason race.
Regardless, we should know a lot about this team after the season’s first seven weeks.
A December to remember
The schedule lightens up in the months of October and November enough to where the Cowboys should be able to rattle off some wins against lesser opponents. Home games against the Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans should not even be close games, and the road trip to take on the Indianapolis Colts shouldn’t be too big of a challenge either.
But once Thanksgiving rolls around, the gauntlet returns.
After a clash with the Eagles on Turkey Day, the Cowboys will get a long break before playing the following Monday night in Seattle against the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks.
A much-needed bye week late in the season will then lay the runway for a clash against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Week 15 before returning home for a Sunday night clash against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Between those four games, the Cowboys will play four teams that were in the postseason from a year ago.
Getting just two wins out of those four would be a job well done. But if fans want true confidence with the postseason on the horizon, getting a win on the road against one of the NFC West front-runners will be crucial.
