Dallas Cowboys’ playoff odds might be better than you think after Eagles ‘ loss
Entering Week 15 of the NFL season, the Dallas Cowboys are firmly on the outside looking in when it comes to the NFC playoff picture.
But despite a 44-30 loss to the Detroit Lions last Thursday that dropped the team to 6-6-1, the path for the Cowboys to make the playoffs is not as unrealistic as you may think.
Simply put, the Philadelphia Eagles’ 22-19 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night was huge. While the result only boosted the current odds for the Cowboys from 7% to 11%, it created a path that Dallas was already keen on going down over the final four weeks.
If Dallas wins its final four games — home vs. the Vikings (5-8), home vs. the Chargers (9-4), at the Commanders (3-10), at the Giants (2-11) — the Cowboys will have a 54% chance of making the postseason, according to the Athletic’s NFL playoff simulator.
Essentially, it becomes a toss-up that is mostly dependent on Philadelphia (8-5) losing at least two more games the rest of the way.
The Eagles’ schedule sees them host the Raiders (2-11) and travel to take on the Bills (9-4), along with a home-and-away split with the Commanders. Philadelphia is favored in each contest aside from the trip to Buffalo. However, the Eagles have begun to falter. They have now lost three straight games and have not won a contest by more than one score since Oct. 26.
The easiest path to the playoffs for the Cowboys is by winning the NFC East. But what if the Eagles take care of business?
If Philadelphia loses just one game instead of two while the Cowboys win out, Dallas’ odds to get in sit at 26%. That path would require at least two teams ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC wild-card race to crash and burn. Those teams include the Seahawks (10-3), 49ers (9-4), Bears (9-4) and Lions (8-5).
The two teams to watch closely in that scenario: San Francisco and Detroit. While the 49ers should take care of business against the bottom-dwelling Titans on Sunday, their remaining schedule sees them play current playoff teams in the Colts (8-5), Bears and Seahawks. Losing all three would move the 49ers below the Cowboys if they win out.
The Lions’ final four games are against the NFC-leading Rams (10-3), the AFC North-leading Steelers (7-6), the Vikings and the Bears. Losing two of four, along with the San Francisco result, would get Dallas into the playoffs if the Cowboys win out.
For Dallas to sneak into the postseason as a wild-card team, a lot of “ifs” and “buts” will need to follow through — hence just the one-in-four chance even if head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s squad does win out.
But after a three-game slide from the Eagles that is reminiscent of when they finished the 2023 season with a 1-5 record in the final six weeks, the door is left cracked for the Cowboys in the NFC East.
This story was originally published December 9, 2025 at 10:05 AM.
