Led by QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs will win a nail-biter in a classic Super Bowl
Super Bowl LIV has been built up as a battle between the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes versus the San Francisco 49ers’ defense, led by the defensive end Nick Bosa and fearsome foursome up front.
However, the truth is the 49ers outscored the Chiefs in the regular season, 479 to 451, while the Chiefs defense allowed fewer points than the 49ers, 308 to 310.
So much for narratives.
It’s also why this game has been so hard to pick by odds makers.
It’s been a virtual toss-up since the match-up was set up two weeks ago, and right now the Chiefs are favored by 1.5 points.
In keeping with that theme, look for the Chiefs to prevail 28-27 with the Kansas City Chiefs offense led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes
Here is a breakdown:
OFFENSE
Mahomes is going to get his points and his passing yards. This will not be a replay of the Seattle Seahawks destroying Payton Manning and the Denver Broncos or the New England Patriots befuddling Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff a year ago.
Mahomes is too good, too smart and too electric. He has passed for 250 or more yards in 25 of the 31 NFL games he has played in his career. He also has an Olympic track team on the outside to throw to, led by the top speedster Tyreek Hill.
How is 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman going to keep up with Hill?
And even if they play zone on the outside, Mahomes will exploit the middle of the field with tight end Travis Kelce. And while the 49ers have some man-eaters up front, the Chiefs offensive line is among the best league, and will be able to give Mahomes at least three seconds to release the ball on passing attempts.
The question for the 49ers is whether quarterback Jimmy Garrapolo can make the plays in the passing game, if necessary. He attempted just eight passes in the NFC title game against the Green Bay Packers thanks to a dominant rushing attack.
San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert, who rushed for 220 yards against the Packers, more than a quarter of his rushing total for the entire season. But expect Garrapolo to have a bigger impact than he did during the NFC Championship.
This will be Garrapolo’s third Super Bowl. He won two rings as the back-up to Tom Brady when the Patriots won it all after the 2014 and 2016 seasons. But Garrapolo is an accomplished quarterback in his own right. This season, he’s passed for over 300 yards three times and has had a passer rating above 100 nine times.
DEFENSE
There is no question who has the better defense, and defense wins championships, right? The 49ers ranked No. 2 in the NFL in total defense and No. 1 against the pass. The unit is led by a defensive front that includes five first-round draft choices — Bosa, Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead and Solomon Thomas.
San Francisco doesn’t need to blitz to get pressure on the quarterback, which allows their unit to play coverage in the secondary.
If the 49ers defense has any question, it’s their ability to stop the run and contain mobile quarterbacks. Two of their three losses this season came against Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Russell Wilson of the Seahawks.
And don’t forget that Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray gave them fits as well. Mahomes is the best in the league — running, throwing and making plays.
The biggest concern in Kansas City is that their defense is not nearly as good at stopping the run, although they were able to contain the Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry in the AFC title game. And it’s not just stopping the run against the 49ers; it’s stopping the pass plays set up like run plays that could give them fits.
Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu has risen to become a leader on defense, and is often referred to as the quarterback on defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The edge in special teams goes to Kansas City, and their dangerous return man Mecole Hardman. He is one of the fastest players in the NFL and can break the game open on kickoff or punt returns. San Francisco must find a way to contain him.
The 49ers’ Richie James is solid on returns, ranking fifth in the league overall because he’s had so many chances, but he is not a game-breaker like Hardman.
COACHING
Both coaches came into the game with something to prove.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid has more wins (207) without a championship than any other coach in NFL history. He has always been considered one of the league’s best coaches. The knock on him has been an inability to break through in championship games.
The magic of Mahomes has brought Reid to Miami, but give the coach credit for designing schemes for him to thrive in. The key to their run has been the addition of aggressive defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The defense is still the weakest link, but it’s no longer a sieve.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is back in the Super Bowl and still smarting from blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots when he was offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons three years ago.
His offensive schemes, especially, in the run game have proved to be the difference for the 49ers in the playoffs. His Super Bowl demon is young and feisty, while the Super Bowl monkey on Reid’s back in old and ornery.
Old wins on Sunday.
