Making history at the NFL draft for all of the right (and wrong) reasons
TCU should have the most players from any Texas school selected in the first few rounds of this week’s NFL draft, and in the first round the Horned Frogs have a chance to make history.
The type of history that the school, and its football program, will brag about in recruiting meetings, media guides and brochures.
The type of history that the school would rather not repeat.
There is a plausible chance TCU will have three players picked in the first round of the draft Thursday night — receiver Jalen Reagor, cornerback Jeff Gladney and defensive tackle Ross Blacklock.
Should it occur it would be a high for the program. And, at the same time, it would create the oddest of lows.
Seldom does a team produce three first-round picks in the same year. And almost never has a team that has produced three first-rounders finds itself coming off a season in which it has missed a bowl game, complete with a losing record.
All of the below illustrates that TCU can have NFL talent at vital positions, and it doesn’t get a bowl bid if the quarterback is all over the place.
Of the many impressive feats accumulated in the Gary Patterson era at TCU, one of the more bewildering achievements will be a 2019 team that featured NFL talent but finished 5-7 and did not qualify for a postseason bid.
“I don’t know where the wins went,” NFL Network draft guru Daniel Jeremiah said on a conference call last week with reporters.
Per our good friends at the Elias Sports Bureau, since the NFL’s common draft era began in 1967, no team that finished with a losing record the previous fall produced three first round picks the following spring.
As far as making a bowl, the most recent occurrence of this oddity was nearly 40 years ago.
The 1982 USC Trojans did not play in a bowl game, but the program did produce three first-round picks — guard Bruce Matthews, defensive back Joey Browner and center Dan Mosebar — in the famous 1983 NFL draft. However, the one caveat here is that the ‘82 Trojans didn’t miss a bowl game due to a sub-par record. They finished 8-3, but were on probation for an NCAA infraction.
And after the 1980 season, we find that there was another squad that also produced three first-rounders and also missed a bowl game. The team was, again, the USC Trojans, and its first-rounders were defensive backs Ronnie Lott and Dennis Smith and offensive tackle Keith Van Horne. The Trojans finished 8-2-1, and missed a bowl because of, naturally, probation following an NCAA violation.
Okay, so, probation aside, the last time a team produced three NFL first-rounders and missed a bowl game was the 1972 Purdue Boilermakers. The team finished 6-5 that season, but the ‘73 draft saw defensive tackle Dave Butz, running back Otis Armstrong and receiver Daryl Stingley all get plucked within the first 19 picks.
And about a 6-5 team not making the postseason, it’s worth noting that there were only 11 bowl games after the 1972 season. Last season there were 40.
As history has shown, putting together a team with three first-round draft picks is difficult. It has happened 70 times since the 1973 draft, but doing so while also missing a bowl game with a losing record the previous season just doesn’t happen.
With the likely chance that offensive lineman Lucas Niang will be selected in the first four rounds, the 2020 NFL draft could be one of the most productive ones in the history of TCU.
Since the school joined the Big 12 in 2012, TCU has progressively increased its level of talent. Between 2014 and 2019, the Horned Frogs have produced a total of three first-round selections — cornerback Jason Verrett in 2014, receiver Josh Doctson in 2016, and defensive end L.J. Collier in 2019.
Before that, TCU’s previous three first three-rounders came in 2010, 2001 and 1984.
High-end talent was not TCU’s problem in 2019.
The 2020 NFL draft is simply a reminder of what missed from TCU’s previous season. The 5-7 record is not all on then-freshman Max Duggan, but in a quarterback league his play was too erratic to overcome.
Of the 10 starting quarterbacks in the league, his yards per pass attempt, QB rating and completion percentage were at the bottom of the Big 12.
If those numbers improve, TCU has a winning season and rather than discuss what could be an oddity at the 2020 NFL draft for the Horned Frogs they would celebrate what is than lament what should have been.
This story was originally published April 20, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
