Dallas Mavericks

Facing a 9.93 percent chance to win Game 2, Mavericks beat the odds and OKC

Dallas Mavericks guard Raymond Felton had 21 points and 11 rebounds in the Game 2 playoff shocker.
Dallas Mavericks guard Raymond Felton had 21 points and 11 rebounds in the Game 2 playoff shocker. AP

There’s beating the odds and there’s beating the odds.

And then there’s the gritty Dallas Mavericks.

The Mavericks’ win over Oklahoma City in Game 2 in their NBA playoff series Monday put algorithms in overdrive.

According to numberFire, an analytical company, the Mavericks began the game with a 9.93 percent chance of winning.

That’s right, 9.93 percent chance of beating the Thunder at Cheaspeake Energy Arena.

Those odds were super high even for a team that lost 108-70 in Game 1.

The Mavericks’ 85-84 win over Oklahoma City in Game 2 is hard to put into words.

So numberFire put it into numbers.

OKC's win probability never dipped below 75 percent through the first three quarters.

After a 10-3 Dallas run that tied the game at 81-81, the biggest win probability swing of the contest happened with 29 seconds left, when Raymond Felton converted a layup to give the Mavericks an 83-81 lead.

That marked a 17.67 percent swing in favor of Dallas, putting their win probability at 76.36 percent. Wesley Matthews added another layup with 14 seconds left, making it 85-81.

The combination of Matthews’ basket and the time that had run off the clock put Dallas' win probability at 95 percent.

The game was still in the balance however.

Durant's rebound off of Felton's second missed free throw brought OKC's win probability back to 35.78 percent with 7.1 seconds to go.

Durant got the rebound and passed the ball to Westbrook, who started a fastbreak, then weaved inside the lane before passing the ball back to Durant.

Durant had his shot blocked by rookie Justin Anderson. Westbrook’s put-back shot bounced hard off the glass and Steven Adams grabbed the ball in the air and banked it in, all in one motion, as the buzzer sounded.

After a review, Adams’ shot was waved off and the Mavericks had beaten astronomical odds.

Game 3 is Thursday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Tipoff is 6 p.m.

OKC’s odds of winning the series haven’t changed much, falling from 76.48 percent to 67.76 percent after two games.

But after Game 2’s results, anything can happen.

NumberFire and the Dallas Mavericks have the algorithms to prove it.

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