Despite Rangers’ winning trend, numbers suggest Astros still win West

It’s a good thing computers don’t decide championships. Despite the Rangers surge to the top of the American League West headed into Wednesday’s showdown with the Astros, the analytics (or statistical trends) used by multiple outlets on the Internet continue to claim Rangers are unlikely to take the division title.

Respected sites such as Fangraphs.com and NumberFire.com both have the Astros finishing a game ahead of the Rangers. But are those statistical trends, including the Rangers’ subpar run differential really indicative of the current club battling the Astros?

Say what?

Here’s a look at numberfire.com’s current projections in the A.L. West before Wednesday’s game:

Rangers manager Jeff Banister, who embraces advanced analytics when evaluating players, said some of club’s lopsided losses earlier in the year skew some of numbers. Plus, he added, his team has changed with the added relievers and starter Cole Hamels.

“The club has changed, there are guys who are performing differently,” he said. “We’ve gotten good at figuring out how to win ball games.”

The Rangers run differential is skewed by nine losses by seven or more runs early in the season, including a 16-run loss to the Yankees on July 28.

What does it mean?

“Zero,” Banister said. “The back end of that bullpen has gotten a lot better. Starting pitching has obviously improved. I think the offense has probably been a little more consistent than it was early on. Early on, we’d score just enough and give up way too many.”

Rotation situation

Colby Lewis starts Thursday’s series finale against the Astros. Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels and Derek Holland are scheduled to start the weekend series against the Seattle Mariners. Banister said he’ll decide whether to make any changes during Monday’s off day. The Rangers play three at Oakland next week before starting a three-game series in Houston on Sept. 25. Hamels and Holland are lined up to start the first two in Houston.

“We have the off day and we’ll reassess which direction we want to go,” he said. “Do we want to honor the off day or do we want to make any moves?”

Rookie Chi Chi Gonzalez is in the bullpen but still could be used in a spot start, if necessary.

“We like how the rotation is set up now,” Banister said. “If somebody needs a day or two we can maneuver.”

Familiar vibes

Lewis said there is a familiar vibe in the Rangers’ clubhouse right now.

“I think it’s real similar to out ‘10 and ‘11 seasons that we’ve had and even the ‘12 season when we were pretty much in first place all year,” said Lewis, who goes for win No. 16 Thursday. “I think that’s the same type of feel that’s going on right now. A lot of these guys are really enjoying it, having the fanbase to back us and staying into the game the whole time, guys are really locked in.”

TV rating

The Rangers’ 6-5 win Tuesday, which vaulted them into first place in the A.L. West over the Astros, scored a season-high 5.34 television rating, according to Nielsen Media Research. It’s the highest-rated Rangers game on Fox Sports Southwest since Sept. 29, 2013 against the Angels, which registered a 5.9 rating. The telecast hit a peak rating of 7.87 in the game’s final quarter hour (10:45 to 11 p.m.). The final hour beat all local stations during that time period.

Briefly

Catcher Robinson Chirinos threw for the second day and hopes to hit Thursday. He’s been out since a snapping his right biceps tendon last week.

Key stat

4 RBI for Rangers left-fielders the previous 28 games before Wednesday’s game. Since Aug. 17 Rangers left-fielders were hitting .149 (13-87) with one double, one home run. Mike Napoli, playing left for the third time in his career, threw out a runner at third and had a three-run homer in the first.

This story was originally published September 16, 2015 at 8:40 PM with the headline "Despite Rangers’ winning trend, numbers suggest Astros still win West."