What are the Texas Rangers playoff scenarios heading into their series with the Mariners?
Following the Texas Rangers 5-0 victory on Wednesday over the Los Angeles Angels, the Rangers are on the cusp of their first MLB playoff appearance since 2016.
The Rangers (89-69) lead the American League West by 2.5 games over the Houston Astros (87-72) heading into Thursday’s games.
The AL Wild Card Series will begin on Oct. 3 and the ALDS series will begin on Oct. 7.
The Rangers could clinch a spot in the playoffs on Thursday when they begin their four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (85-73). What are the Rangers playoff scenarios?
Win the AL West division play in the Wild Card Series
The Rangers are swept in their series against the Mariners. Houston is swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Minnesota Twins win their last four games.
In this scenario, the Rangers would win the division and host an AL Wild Card Round series.
This would happen because the Rangers own the tiebreaker over the Mariners due to their head-to-head record but would lose the second seed in the MLB playoffs to the Twins who own the tiebreaker over the Rangers.
Win the AL West division play in the ALDS
The Rangers magic number to win the AL West is two games which means they need either two wins in their series against Seattle, two losses in the Astros final series, or some combination of the two to clinch.
In this scenario, the Rangers would win the AL West, be the No. 2 seed in the MLB playoffs, and host the ALDS versus the winner of the Wild Card matchup between the Twins and the No. 6 seed.
Make the AL Wildcard as the No. 5 seed
The Rangers win one out of their last four against Seattle in combination with the Astros sweeping the Diamondbacks and the Blue Jays winning three out of their last four games.
This would have the Astros winning the AL West due to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rangers. The Rangers would then become the No. 5 seed over the Blue Jays because of the head-to-head tiebreaker over Toronto but the Blue Jays would still make the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.
Make the AL Wildcard as the No. 6 seed
This would be the same scenario as above but the Blue Jays would win each of their last four games which would give them a better record than the Rangers and would push the Rangers to the last Wild Card spot.
Miss the Playoffs entirely
The worst-case scenario for the Rangers is possible if they are swept by Seattle in combination with the Astros winning two against the Diamondbacks and the Blue Jays winning three out of their last four games.
This would have the Mariners winning the AL West division with the Astros and Blue Jays taking the last two AL Wild Card spots and the Rangers missing the playoffs.
According to FanGraphs, there is a less than 1% chance the Rangers miss the playoffs entirely.
This story was originally published September 28, 2023 at 11:22 AM.
