It may be too early to call Texas Rangers’ Adolis Garcia an MVP candidate, but he is

The WAR statistic isn’t as cut and dried like home runs and batting average.

There are two different formulas, after all, but it is widely regarded as the best way to judge how good a ballplayer is.

The bigger the number, the more wins the player is worth compared to a replacement-level player at that position.

Whatever elements are in those two formulas, one by Baseball Reference and another by FanGraphs, Adolis Garcia embodies many of them.

The Texas Rangers’ breakout star hits, he hits for power, he can run, and, as he showed yet again Thursday night in a 5-0 loss to the Seattle Mariners, he is very good defensive player.

Garcia robbed Mitch Haniger of a first-inning homer with a leaping catch in center field, and then threw out Jack Mayfield at home to end the seventh inning. Garcia didn’t homer for the third straight game or even get a hit, but he entered Saturday still tied for the MLB lead in homers with 16.

And he is the American League leader in Baseball Reference’s WAR (bWAR) for position players at 2.9.

Garcia, a 28-year-old rookie who didn’t make the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, is a candidate for American League MVP.

“You could definitely make an argument,” manager Chris Woodward said.

Garcia’s WAR lead was just 0.1 over teammate shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Twins center fielder Byron Buxton and Blue Jays designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with whom Garcia shares the MLB homer lead.

The MLB schedule called for the Rangers to play Game 54 of 162 late Saturday night at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Going into that contest, the 22-31 Rangers had lost four straight, 10 in a row on the road, and were in last place in the AL West with a .415 winning percentage.

They aren’t contenders in other words, and while some MVPs have come from non-playoff teams, none of the last 10 recipients have come from a team with a winning percentage as low as the 2021 Texas Rangers. That could be significant when it comes to ballot time.

So you’re saying there’s a chance

Thirty members of the Baseball Writers Association of America, two from each AL club, vote each season for MVP. Some voters adhere to WAR as their guide for filling out a ballot. Others use an eye test. Some used a combination of the two.

Many voters believe that an MVP can play for a non-contender. Many believe that an MVP must play for a contender.

Beliefs aside, three of the last 10 MVP Award winners played on teams that had sub-.500 records that did not qualify for the postseason. Angels center fielder Mike Trout, a three-time MVP, did it twice. And Giancarlo Stanton owns the other one when he did it as a right fielder with the Marlins.

“If he’s having an MVP-type year and his team isn’t a very good, it’s no fault of his,” Woodward said. “It does matter if you’re playing in a lot of close games, and you’re getting big hits those things might matter. So you can kind of dig into it a little bit more if you got two guys that are pretty equal. ...

“... I know, as of right now, we’re not a contender, as far as the record goes. Doesn’t mean we won’t be.”

With more than 100 games remaining, Garcia has to continue playing at an elite level to be in the discussion on the final day of the regular season, when all ballots are due. He must adjust when opponents adjust to him to keep slumps to a minimum.

Garcia doesn’t need to lead baseball in home runs or defensive runs saved. But he has to be among the best to be considered an MVP candidate and a Rookie of the Year candidate.

But in the six weeks since his April 13 season debut, he has been one of the most valuable players in baseball.

“Just every night going to the field I’m thinking to myself, ‘What is Adolis going to do today?’” left fielder Willie Calhoun said. “’Is he going to hit three homers? Is he going to rob another homer? Or is he going to make a crazy base-running play?’ When he does something now, like, crazy, it’s kind of expected because of what he’s doing right now on the field.”

WAR among recent MVP award winners

* team did not reach playoffs

^ team reached World Series

^^ team won World Series

This story was originally published May 28, 2021 at 10:21 PM.

Jeff Wilson

Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Jeff Wilson covered the Texas Rangers for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.