48-game MLB season looking more realistic after owners’ latest proposal to players
In what could be their final offer to the players, the 30 MLB team owners proposed on Friday a 72-game season that would guarantee players 70% of their pro-rated salaries and 83% if an expanded postseason is completed.
Multiple reports say that the players have until Sunday to accept the offer. Multiple reports also say the players have already decided to reject the proposal because it does not offer the full pro-rated salaries players believe the owners agreed in March to pay.
If it is rejected, commissioner Rob Manfred has the power to implement a 48-game season at full pro-rated salary. He guaranteed on Wednesday that baseball will be played this year but is hoping to reach a negotiated agreement.
A 72-game season would begin around July 14 and end Sept. 27 to accommodate the postseason, which could be stretched by an additional 16 games. The owners have fears of losing the postseason to a second wave of coronavirus.
An impasse is risky for both sides.
A numbers crunch by The Athletic’s Evan Drellich said that the 72-game offer and the Manfred mandate are essentially a financial wash. The owners have slowly increased the percentage of salaries they are willing to pay.
Manfred said Wednesday that a new offer was coming and that it would move in the players’ direction. The players had proposed an 89-game season at their full pro-rated salaries, though with two years of expanded playoffs and the opportunity for All-Star Game and Home Run Derby following the World Series.
The owners quickly rejected the offer, just as the players appear to have done with the owners’ newest offer.
The players have held firm to the principle of full pro rata after already agreeing to a staggering pay cut. They have a shorter period to earn money — careers do eventually end — than owners.
The players would also widen the division with the owners by likely refusing expanded playoffs and by filing a grievance against the owners. The players could tell an arbitrator the owners didn’t act in good faith to stage the most games possible, and that could provide a look at the clubs’ financial records.
The players reportedly do not believe the owners’ claims that they would lose $640,000 a game without fans, and the owners have been unwilling to provide evidence of that claim.
Owners absolutely do not want to open their books, so they might be inclined to accept a counter-proposal from the players. The players, meanwhile, run the risk of losing the public relations battle to the owners in the 48-game season scenario.
Some 40 million Americans are unemployed because of the coronavirus shutdown, and with players still pocketing six-, seven- and perhaps a few eight-figure salaries despite a reduction in pay, public opinion could shift further against the players.
Both sides could feel the impact of diminishing the MLB fan base by fighting over money in the face of drastic unemployment, more than 110,000 COVID-19 deaths, and civic unrest following the death of George Floyd.
Fewer fans would mean less money for owners, something that would trickle down to future player salaries. Less money could diminish franchise values, and owners know they make the big bucks one they sell their teams.
Don’t forget about the next round of bargaining for a new basic agreement next year and the possibility of a work stoppage. Or another shortened season in 2021 if the dangers associated with COVID-19 persist.
A negotiated agreement would help to limit the self-imposed damage being done by the billionaire owners and millionaire (many of them) players.
An extended stalemate over money and a 48-game season could do great harm. But that’s exactly where baseball appears to be headed.
