Predicting the AL’s wild races and who might the Rangers host

This should be fun.

Eight teams remain in the hunt for two American League wild card spots this morning (Sept. 7) with just over three weeks left in the regular season.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays are tied atop the heap at 77-61, one game ahead of the Orioles. Of course, that means the AL East is also still in a mad scramble since those three teams reside in that division.

One of the three will take the East, leaving the others to fight over two wild card berths. Trouble is, the Tigers (75-63) are just a game back and the Astros (74-64), who refuse to go away into that good night, are just two games back.

The Yankees (72-65), Royals (72-66) and Mariners (70-68) all have outside shots at the postseason if they close really strong. As in, only lose a few more games level strong. Unlikely. As of this morning, they are 3 1/2, 4 and six games back of the Orioles for the second wild card spot.

After putting the records of the eight wild card contenders into my super computer stat machine, I’ve been able to discern how the race will play out.

The top five teams each have 24 games remaining, including Wednesday’s games.

The Blue Jays and Orioles will go 15-9 the rest of the way while the Red Sox will go 14-10, giving Toronto the East title, one game ahead of Baltimore and Boston.

This will leave the Red Sox and Orioles fighting it off in the one-game wild card game, scheduled for Oct. 4. LARRY, my super computer, says the Orioles will edge the Red Sox in the season series (including seven remaining) 10-9 and will host the wild card game. Larry, by the way, stands for Loquacious Analytical Run-Differential Results Y=MC² (the “differential” is silent).

The Tigers and Astros will both go 14-10 and finish 89-73 and 88-74.

If the Rangers hold on to the AL’s best record, they’ll host the Red Sox-Orioles winner in the ALDS, beginning with Game 1 at Globe Life Park Oct. 6. The Rangers, LARRY determined, will finish 98-64.

The Cleveland Indians, which LARRY says will finish 93-69, will host the Blue Jays in the the ALDS.

Here’s a look at LARRY’s projections:

*-AL East title

#- wild card

This story was originally published September 7, 2016 at 4:03 AM with the headline "Predicting the AL’s wild races and who might the Rangers host."