MLB draft projections: Could Fort Worth baseball star go No. 1?
The MLB draft will kick off at noon Saturday, and analysts are projecting Fort Worth Christian standout Grady Emerson to hear his name called early.
In MLB.com’s latest projection, Emerson is the favorite to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick by the Chicago White Sox.
MLB.com analyst Jonathan Mayo flipped his prediction, originally projecting UCLA standout shortstop Roch Cholowsky to be taken first.
Fellow MLB.com writer Jim Callis gave a slight edge to Emerson, saying he has a 51% chance to be selected No. 1, while Cholowsky sits at 47%. According to MLB.com, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey is also in the mix, and is projected to be taken at No. 3 by the Minnesota Twins. Callis still gave him a 2% chance to be selected by the White Sox.
When it comes to the top three selections, top analysts are in major disagreement in what appears to be a tight race.
ESPN projected Emerson to be selected with the No. 2 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Rays in its final rankings. The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote that the White Sox are “leaning toward Emerson” with Lackey projected second and Cholowsky being a distant third.
Bleacher Report also predicted Emerson being taken with the No. 1 pick, comparing him to Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager. Emerson, who led Fort Worth Christian to the TAPPS Division II state championship game, was named the Star-Telegram’s Offensive Player of the Year and earned Gatorade National Player of the Year honors following his senior season.
He hit .532 with seven home runs and 31 stolen bases, combining strong offensive production with the Fort Worth-area’s most polished defensive ability. He transferred from Argyle to Fort Worth Christian ahead of his senior season to play for Texas Rangers legend and Cardinals head coach Rusty Greer.
Emerson was named a finalist for the 2026 Golden Spikes Award, becoming only the second prep player in history to earn the honor. The other prep star to do it was Kansas City Royals All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who received the nod after a standout season at Colleyville Heritage in 2019.
Witt Jr. was selected No. 2 by the Kansas City Royals in the 2019 MLB draft.
Other players to watch
Sawyer Strosnider, outfield, TCU: Strosnider saw his production fall during his second year at TCU, as he tallied a .273 batting average after hitting .350 during a standout freshman campaign. Strosnider has extremely high upside, however, with some outlets projecting him to be taken in the first round. Strosnider attended Brock High School, where he led the Eagles to a state championship appearance while hitting .547 with 44 RBIs.
Chase Brunson, outfield, TCU: ESPN projects Brunson, who tallied a .304 batting average for TCU in 2026, to be taken at No. 38.
Lucas Nawrocki, left-handed pitcher/outfield, Aledo High School: Nawrocki, the 2026 Star-Telegram Player of the Year and an LSU pledge, is projected by ESPN to be taken with the 91st overall pick. He led Aledo to consecutive Class 5A Division I state championships.
Cole Koeninger, right-handed pitcher, Keller High School: Koeninger, the 2026 Star-Telegram Pitcher of the Year, is projected by ESPN to be taken with the 107th pick. He led Keller to the Class 6A Division I state championship.
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Logan Georges, right-handed pitcher, Clovis High School (Calif.): TCU fans will want to watch this one closely, as Georges is committed to the Horned Frogs. ESPN predicts him to be taken at 160.
Tommy LaPour, right-handed pitcher, TCU: LaPour, who was sidelined the majority of the 2026 season with injury, was one of the Horned Frogs’ most consistent arms in 2025 with a 3.09 ERA. ESPN projects him to be taken at 170.
Jorvorskie Lane, outfield/catcher/utility, Grapevine High School: Lane, an Arkansas pledge, has established himself as one of the Fort Worth area’s top performers the past three seasons. He is projected by ESPN to be selected at No. 204.
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