Will UTA’s run be enough to reach NCAA Tournament?

With UT Arlington off to its best start in school history, it’s hard not to wonder if it can earn an NCAA Tournament berth without winning a conference title.

The Mavericks have already beaten perennial powers Ohio State and Memphis, took Texas to overtime and knocked off two-time defending Sun Belt champion Georgia State with ease.

At 12-2, they’ve done everything possible to catch the eye of the NCAA selection committee. So what do they need to do to get a chance at the NCAA Tournament?

“I think we have to be perfect in conference,” coach Scott Cross said. “Maybe you could afford a loss to Georgia State or Little Rock, but we’d have to almost have a perfect season to get in without winning the conference tournament.”

Winning the Sun Belt tournament in March would earn the Mavericks an automatic bid. But UTA coach Scott Cross is bearish about his team’s chances for an at-large berth. His 2011-12 team didn’t get one after being knocked out of the Southland Conference tournament in the second round despite going 15-1 in conference during the regular season.

The Sun Belt, however, is a better conference than the Southland, and this season’s team navigated a tougher nonconference schedule than the 2011-12 team, which had signature wins over Louisiana Tech and Kent State.

It’s all about RPI, a combination of win percentage and strength of schedule that is one of the key tools the NCAA selection committee uses when determining who belongs in the tournament.

While the Mavericks have an RPI advantage right now at No. 39, the Sun Belt doesn’t.

Strength of schedule is out of UTA’s hands moving forward. Ohio State and Memphis, the flagship programs the Mavericks knocked off this year, haven’t completely corrected course. Even though it beat Kentucky, Ohio State had sputtered to 11-6 entering Wednesday’s game against Rutgers while Memphis sat at 10-5 entering its game against Temple.

UTA needs both of those teams to start winning, because the Sun Belt’s No. 19 RPI ranking among conferences isn’t helping. The Sun Belt also doesn’t have a history of sending multiple teams to the tournament.

The Sun Belt has sent only one at-large team to the tournament since 1994. In 2007-08, South Alabama earned a No. 10 seed by going 26-7 in the regular season and 16-2 in conference. Other than that, it’s conference title or bust.

And UTA isn’t the only Sun Belt team off to a impressive start. Little Rock is 14-1 and ranked third in the Mid-Major Top 25 after starting the season 10-0.

Georgia State, which UTA beat by 15, sits at 10-3 and has earned a No. 46 RPI ranking.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UTA as one of the First Four Out, signifying they’d just miss the cut. CBSsports.com has the Mavericks earning a 13 seed.

Since it’s still mid-January, it’s murky territory trying to prognosticate how teams will finish. It might be all for naught if the Mavericks nosedive and finish in the middle of the Sun Belt pack, but it seems unlikely given the talent on the roster.

Kevin Hervey and Erick Neal are two of the most dynamic players in the conference, and Cross has his Mavericks winning games by a 15.4-point margin.

There’s no magic number of wins UTA needs to earn a berth, but Cross isn’t counting on getting an at-large bid if his team finishes any worse than 16-1 down the stretch.

“It’s an honor to be in the conversation, but if we don’t take care of business against Troy [on Thursday], it’s over,” Cross said.

This story was originally published January 13, 2016 at 4:47 PM with the headline "Will UTA’s run be enough to reach NCAA Tournament?."