Analysis: TCU men continue to trend in right direction for March Madness
After handling its business with a 90-78 win against Arizona State on Tuesday night, TCU men’s basketball continues to trend in the right direction for the NCAA Tournament.
While it’s not a signature win that could bolster the Horned Frogs’ resume, the most important thing for TCU right now is to avoid losses. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projected that the Horned Frogs likely would’ve fallen out of this bracket with a defeat.
But after the win, Lunardi provided another bracketology update with the Horned Frogs moving up a slot in the “Last Four In” category.
TCU only sits behind Santa Clara and is two spots away from moving up into the “Last Four Byes” category which would enable the program to avoid a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio.
With three games left in the regular season, is it possible for the Horned Frogs to play their way off the bubble entirely before the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City?
With a strong finish, it’s certainly possible. Here’s a quick overview of TCU’s resume, the latest bracketology projections and a quick look at the road ahead:
TCU’s resume
Record: 18-10, 8-7 Big 12
NET ranking: 45
Quad 1 and 2 record: 8-8 with four Q1 wins
Key wins: vs. Florida (neutral), vs. Wisconsin (neutral), vs. Iowa State (home), at Baylor
Key losses: vs. New Orleans (home), at Utah, vs. Notre Dame
Breakdown: The Horned Frogs have a solid resume at this point of the season, with the trio of wins over the Gators, Badgers and Cyclones being one of the strongest collections of victories nationally. Baylor remaining in the top-50 NET despite being 13-14 is also a major data point for TCU.
All of those victories were necessary to overcome the setbacks to Utah, New Orleans and The Fighting Irish. The Utes rank last in the Big 12 while Notre Dame hasn’t been competitive in the ACC. It’s safe to assume that TCU would be firmly in the field if you flipped just one of those results.
Lastest bracketology updates
ESPN: The Horned Frogs remained in the ‘Last Four In’ category on Wednesday morning and are projected to play in a First Four game in Dayton as an 11-seed.
CBS Sports: The Horned Frogs also remained in the Last Four In category with CBS as TCU is projected to play Santa Clara in a First Four game in the Midwest region.
Sporting News: TCU also lands in a First Four game as an 11 seed in SN’s latest projections from Tuesday.
According to BracketMatrix, which collects bracketology projections from over a dozen sites, TCU is an 11 seed in every projection that currently has the program in the field.
The road ahead
TCU closes the season at Kansas State, at Texas Tech and at home vs. Cincinnati on March 7. The first priority has to be avoiding a setback in Manhattan on Saturday as the Wildcats are just a half-game ahead of last place Utah. The Horned Frogs already defeated the Wildcats once, 84-82 on Feb. 7, and since then the Wildcats fired former head coach Jerome Tang.
Led by former TCU player PJ Haggerty, Kansas State is more than capable of sending the Horned Frogs back down the bubble if they’re not careful. The matchup with Texas Tech on March 3 is the biggest of them all and is a game where TCU could potentially lock up an at-large bid.
The Red Raiders are a tough matchup with wins over Duke, Houston and Arizona, but they’re somewhat vulnerable, as All-American forward JT Toppin will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. However, his absence has allowed Christian Anderson Jr. to blossom. The talented guard is averaging 26 points, 8 rebounds and 8.5 assists while leading Texas Tech to a 2-0 record without Toppin.
Finally, the season finale against Cincinnati is another dangerous game for TCU. The Bearcats would count as a Quad 2 win, which would be nice, but not enough to ease the Horned Frogs’ stress if they were unable to pull off the upset in Lubbock. Cincinnati has defeated Kansas and Iowa State this season, showing that the Bearcats can beat anybody when they’re on their game.
So what record should TCU aim for in the final stretch? 3-0 easily locks up an at-large bid for the program. 2-1 with wins over Cincinnati and Kansas State will likely get TCU in the ‘Last Four Byes’ category, but the Horned Frogs would still probably need a win in the Big 12 Tournament to feel good about their chances. 2-1 with one of the wins being over Texas Tech should also get TCU in the field.
Going 1-2 or worse, 0-3, would undo all the work TCU has done and leave the Horned Frogs on the wrong side of the bubble entering the Big 12 Tournament. TCU has to avoid that scenario at all cost.
A path for TCU getting into the NCAA Tournament is starting to emerge, but it’s still filled with potential pitfalls that could doom the season. The Horned Frogs are close, but there’s still more work to do.
