Welcome back to a special Texas edition of three reasons why as TCU football gears up for a quick road trip to No. 25 Houston at 3 p.m. Saturday on Fox.

The DFW-Houston rivalry will be renewed as the Horned Frogs (6-4, 3-4 Big 12) aim to snap a two-game skid while the Cougars (8-2, 5-2), who are No. 23 in the College Football Playoff rankings, are playing to stay in the conference championship race.

It was hard to find three reasons the Horned Frogs will win this one on the road with the way the team has looked the past few weeks — hard, but not impossible. There are a few avenues for TCU to pull off the upset.

Here are three reason why TCU will defeat Houston or suffer its third straight loss:

Three reasons TCU will defeat Houston

1. Eric McAlister

The leading receiver in the Big 12 is building a strong case for All-American honors with 941 yards and eight touchdowns this season. McAlister has almost 200 more yards than the second-leading receiver in the Big 12.

McAlister has had three straight games with more than 100 yards and has eclipsed the century mark in four of TCU’s past five games. McAlister is instant offense with his big-play ability. He’s the type of receiver who can turn a slant into a 50-yard gain, and the Horned Frogs will need his explosiveness against an underrated Houston defense.

2. Pass rush wakes up

Houston’s offense has vastly improved since last season, but the Cougars have shown vulnerability to strong pass rushers. In their losses to Texas Tech and West Virginia, Houston allowed 2.5 sacks per game and countless pressures. Quarterback Conner Weigman was even knocked out of the game after taking a hit against the Red Raiders.

TCU’s pass rush has been inconsistent this season; the Horned Frogs rank ninth in the Big 12 in sacks. The defense will need to find creative ways to get after Weigman to pull off the upset.

3. Desperate Sonny Dykes?

Sometimes having your back against the wall brings out the best in you as a player or coach. Maybe that will be the case with TCU head coach Sonny Dykes, who understands the building frustration around the direction of the program.

Whether it’s being more aggressive on fourth downs, dialing up more trick plays or just having the better overall scheme, TCU needs Dykes to get into his coaching bag and outfox Willie Fritz, one of the top strategists in the sport.

Three reasons Houston will defeat TCU

1. Mounting injuries

The Horned Frogs will roll into Houston severely hobbled, as star safety Bud Clark and leading rusher Kevorian Barnes are listed as out on the player availability report. Running back Trent Battle and starting guard Cade Bennett are questionable, and freshman wide receiver Ed Small is also slated to miss another game.

TCU had nearly a dozen players listed as out or questionable, while Houston had just five players on its availability report. The healthier team often comes out on top at this time of year.

2. Better defense

While the Horned Frogs’ defense is trying to bounce back from its worst performance of the season, Houston’s defense already got some of its mojo back last week against Central Florida, holding the Knights to three points in the second half.

Houston’s run defense showed signs of being exploitable against Texas Tech and West Virginia, but without Barnes and potentially Battle, it’s hard to project TCU to produce enough yards on the ground to really put pressure on Houston’s front seven.

Houston’s defense has been more consistent this season, especially on third down, and that could make life difficult for a TCU offense that hasn’t played well away from Fort Worth.

3. Matchup problems

The two types of players that have given TCU the most trouble this year have been dual-threat quarterbacks and skilled tight ends. The Cougars have both with Weigman and the 6-foot-7 Tanner Koziol.

Weigman has revived his career in Houston with Fritz unleashing him as a rusher, and Weigman has responded with a career-high 409 yards. Weigman has carried the ball at least 17 times in three games this season, meaning Houston isn’t afraid to use him as a bell cow. Koziol is on a hot streak, averaging 73 yards per game with two touchdowns over the last three for the Cougars.

Finding a way to keep in both check will be crucial to TCU’s chances.

Prediction

Undermanned and trending in the wrong direction, TCU sees its losing streak extend to three games as Houston pulls out a 27-21 win.

This story was originally published November 21, 2025 at 9:56 AM.

Steven Johnson

Fort Worth Star-Telegram