Can TCU men’s basketball sneak into the NCAA Tournament next month? Possibly. Here’s why
After upsetting No. 9 Texas Tech on Tuesday, suddenly the odds of TCU making a fourth straight NCAA Tournament aren’t so far-fetched.
By winning five of their last six games including two Quad 1 wins over Texas Tech and Arizona State, the Horned Frogs have put themselves in position to get onto the bubble before the start of the Big 12 Conference tournament.
It’s a credit to the job head coach Jamie Dixon and the staff has done finding a way to maximize a roster that’s among the youngest in the Big 12 and one that’s also dealt with a number of injuries.
“We’re a team that is getting better and figuring things out,” head coach Jamie Dixon said. “We lost our starting point guard beginning of the year, people wrote us off and now we keep on moving up. That’s what we’re going to keep doing.”
Dixon is correct that many assumed the Horned Frogs would be in for a long Big 12 season after losing Frankie Collins in December and also struggling in the non-conference with losses to Santa Clara and Colorado State in Palm Springs, California.
Had the Horned Frogs performed better during that Thanksgiving weekend in California, there’s a chance TCU might be in the field right now. But those results can’t be reversed, so how can TCU get into the field aside from securing the automatic bid in the conference tournament?
At least one bracketologist has TCU trending in the right direction after Tuesday’s win with T3Bracketology currently having the Horned Frogs listed as a bubble team that’s just outside the 68-team field.
Before beating Texas Tech, ESPN had TCU with just a 7% chance to make the field, but the number jumped to 14%in the hours after the upset win. There’s still plenty of work to be done, but with a weak bubble there’s a path for TCU to make the tournament. Here’s how.
The final stretch
Current resume: 15-11, 8-7 in Big 12. No. 72 in NCAA Net rankings. 3-11 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. No Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses.
Remaining regular-season games: at Cincinnati, at West Virginia, vs. UCF, vs. Baylor, at Colorado
Quad 1 games: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor, Colorado
Potential bad loss: vs. UCF
Breakdown: The Horned Frogs have plenty of opportunity to add valuable Q1 or Q2 wins to their resume with all five opponents currently being in that range. The Knights could drop to a Quad 3 game depending on the next few games, which is why they qualify as a bad loss. UCF has also had TCU’s number since joining the Big 12 with two straight wins over the Horned Frogs. Another defeat to UCF at Schollmaier could end TCU’s chances of an at-large bid.
The other thing problematic about TCU’s finish is the amount of road games remaining. At home the Horned Frogs have shown they can beat anybody, but it’s been a different story away from campus. TCU is just 2-9 away from their home court, but both of those wins were Q1 victories over Baylor and Arizona State.
In a perfect world, TCU would win all three and lock up a bid, but a much more reasonable expectation is for TCU to split games at Cincinnati and West Virginia. Both teams have strong home courts, even when the teams aren’t excelling. Out of the two, the Bearcats would be the most vulnerable on paper as the Horned Frogs have struggled historically in Morgantown. TCU is just 1-11 at West Virginia and the Mountaineers will be determined to avenge the 65-60 loss to TCU from earlier this month.
If the Horned Frogs can split those road games and avoid an upset against UCF, then the biggest task becomes completing the sweep of Baylor. The Bears are currently a Q1 opponent, but could drop to Q2, but either ranking still means it would be an extremely valuable win for TCU’s tournament resume and the program’s psyche overall. Sweeping your in-state rival that you’re trying to catch as a program in a down year would be a big accomplishment for Dixon.
The regular season finale against Colorado will also be a significant game as it could be the difference in TCU finishing above .500 in the Big 12 for the first time under Dixon. So let’s say TCU finishes the year 3-2 with a 18-13 overall record along with a 11-9 record in the BIg 12. TCU would also move to 6-13 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games in this scenario.
Would that be enough to make the field? Historical data suggestions the Horned Frogs would. Every Big 12 team that has finished .500 or better has made the tournament dating back to 2014-15 and every team that finished above .500 in league play has made the field since 2009-10.
It should be noted the Big 12 has expanded greatly since then, so finishing above .500 this year isn’t the same as it was three years ago, when the league only had 10 teams. That context matters, but if TCU closes the year with those metrics and is able to win a game in Kansas City then the Horned Frogs could sneak their way into the tournament for a fourth straight season.
This story was originally published February 19, 2025 at 12:37 PM.
