What’s at stake for No. 10 TCU women’s basketball in final games of regular season?
There are just four games remaining in the regular season for TCU women’s basketball and each will have major implications, regardless of their opponents’ record.
It’s the first time in years that the No. 10 Horned Frogs have had something to play for this late in the season as TCU is in contention for a regular season Big 12 title and a top-16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s start with March Madness. The selection committee released its top-16 seeds on Sunday and the Horned Frogs landed as the No. 9 overall seed, which would make them a No. 3 seed in the Birmingham regional and allow them to host a first- and second-round game in Fort Worth.
Is TCU a lock for a top-16 seed? Barring going 0-4 it sure seems like it as TCU boasts one of the most impressive resumes in the country.
The Horned Frogs are 7-3 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games and just as importantly TCU has avoided costly Quad 3 and 4 losses. Based on the schedule, there seems to be a better chance of TCU moving up to the 1-seed line than dropping to a No. 5 seed.
As for the regular season Big 12 title, there’s more uncertainty with TCU (24-3, 12-2) and Baylor (22-5, 12-2) tied for first place while Kansas State (24-4, 12-3) is right behind by them.
Currently TCU has the tiebreaker over Baylor while Kansas State has the tiebreaker over TCU. All three teams have daunting closes to the year with the Wildcats dropping a game to No. 17 West Virginia on Feb. 17.
The Horned Frogs’ road is straight forward. They’ll need to avoid an upset Wednesday at Arizona State and while road games are challenging, the Sun Devils are just 2-12 in league play.
The next game will be at home against the Mountaineers. West Virginia still has an outside shot of capturing the Big 12 title with an 11-4 record in conference and the Mountaineers have also defeated Oklahoma State along with K-State.
However, West Virginia is just 4-4 away from Morgantown while the Horned Frogs have a perfect record at Schollmaier Arena. That should bode well for TCU’s chances of picking up another top-25 win.
Meanwhile, Kansas State only plays Kansas this week, which should be a bounce back win for the Wildcats. Baylor has two tricky games including a road game at Colorado and hosting Iowa State.
Neither team is contending for the league crown, but both are capable of beating the Bears. So, let’s say both Baylor and K-State go 1-1 this week while the Horned Frogs go 2-0 with win overs ASU and West Virginia.
That would give TCU a 14-2 record in the league while Baylor and K-State will be 13-3. TCU’s final two games would be against Houston and Baylor on the road. Kansas State will host Baylor and travel to Iowa State while the Bears will face the Wildcats and Horned Frogs back-to-back.
The Cougars did upset Oklahoma State earlier this year, but Houston is the worst team in the league and has just won one league game. It would be a major surprise if TCU dropped that game.
The Big title will likely be decided on Feb. 24 when the Bears and Wildcats face off or in TCU’s regular-season finale in Waco on March 2.
Of all the teams remaining in contention, TCU is the team that has the clearest path to the league title. The reward could also include a No. 2 or even a 1 seed come March.
This story was originally published February 18, 2025 at 10:38 AM.
