Can TCU basketball upset another Big 12 rival on the road?
The road hasn’t been kind to TCU this season and the Horned Frogs must overcome another hostile environment when they face No. 22 Texas Tech in Lubbock at 6 p.m. Wednesday.
TCU’s chances of making a fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance are on life support with the Horned Frogs in desperate need of another signature win.
Like Baylor, the Red Raiders would fit into that category due to the rivalry, their top-25 ranking and the game would also be a potential Quad 1 victory with Texas Tech being ranked No. 12 in the NCAA Net rankings.
But TCU will have its hands full pulling off another upset as the Horned Frogs are just 1-7 in games away from Schollmaier Arena. The Red Raiders will also enter Wednesday’s game surging in the midst of a four-game winning streak.
If the tournament is still the goal, every game remaining on TCU’s schedule is a must win. Here’s how they can get it done in Lubbock:
Star transfer
The Red Raiders are led by New Mexico transfer JT Toppin, a former four-star from Faith Family Academy in Oak Cliff. After being named second team All-Mountain West Conference and the Freshman of the Year in the league, Toppin considered entering the NBA Draft and even attended the NBA combine.
Ultimately Toppin decided to stay in school another year and the Red Raiders have benefited greatly from his decision. Toppin leads Texas Tech in points (16.3), rebounds (8.5) and blocks (1.2). The 6-foot-9 sophomore is the most productive and valuable player on the team.
Toppin will occasionally attempt long range shots, but he does most of his damage inside where he’s shooting nearly 60% on 2-point field goals. Keeping him off the glass and outside the paint will be priority No. 1 for TCU.
A legit ‘Big 3’
The Red Raiders aren’t solely reliant on Toppin as they have two more players averaging close to 15 points per game. Senior guard Chance McMillan is one of the most efficient scorers in the conference averaging 14.9 points while shooting 55.4% from the field. As a player that relies a lot on jump shots, it’s impressive to see McMillan maintain that type of efficiency.
McMillan is also the best shooter on the team as he’s knocking down 47% of his 3-pointers while averaging five attempts. McMillan had one stretch in early December where he scored 20 points in three straight games and only two teams have managed to keep him under double digits so far this season.
Forward Darrion Williams completes the trio and he’s a bit undersized at 6’6, but more than makes up for it with the versatility of his game. Williams is averaging 14.7 points and is also second on the team with 4.4 assists. Williams does a little bit of everything for the Red Raiders and is more than capable of carrying the scoring load if Toppin has an off game. Williams has been held to single digits in three straight games, but could be due for a breakout performance if TCU isn’t careful.
Elite balance
The Red Raiders were an average defensive team last year by most metrics, but this year Texas Tech has taken an impressive leap with its team defense. The Red Raiders are ranked No 40 in defensive rating, up over 100 spots from their ranking last season. Texas Tech’s scoring defense is just outside the top-25 nationally as the Red Raiders are holding opponents to just 65.1 points per game.
The Red Raiders rank inside the top-100 in most defensive categories, but Texas Tech also had a top tier offense to pair with it. The Red Raiders are one of the few teams in the country that have a top-40 scoring offense and defense. Texas Tech averages 81.9 points per game and has shown that it can win in shootouts or in grimier games where the score stays in the 60.
The Red Raiders are 10-2 at home with close losses to UCF and Iowa State. Both teams needed to score more than 80 points to get out of Lubbock with a win. The Horned Frogs have failed to score that many points in seven straight games. If TCU can’t produce 80 points, then the Horned Frogs will need to defend like they did in the final minutes of the second half against Baylor.
That’ll be easier said than done against Texas Tech.
