Three reasons why TCU will win or be upset in the New Mexico Bowl against Louisiana
After having the month of December off, Three Reasons Why is back for the final edition of the 2024 football season.
It’s bowl season and TCU will attempt to end the year on a high note in the New Mexico Bowl against Louisiana at 1:15 p.m. on Saturday.
After there was some initial frustration from the fanbase at the Horned Frogs’ postseason landing spot, the focus has shifted to the game and getting to win No. 9. The New Mexico Bowl isn’t a marque bowl, but it’s better than sitting at home like TCU did last year, right?
Her are three reasons why TCU will end the year on a high note or be upset in their final game of the year:
Three reasons why TCU will win the New Mexico Bowl
1. Less attrition: Outside of the playoff teams, almost every team in the postseason has had to deal with player attrition. From the transfer portal to opt outs, many rosters look different than they did on Thanksgiving weekend. The Horned Frogs will be without wide receivers Savion Williams and Jack Bech, but overall TCU’s roster remains in good shape compared to the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Louisiana had a mass exodus of its roster to the transfer portal, including leading defender Carmycah Glass, star receiver Harvey Broussard, tight end Terrance Carter and one of its top running backs in Dre’lyn Washington. TCU is saying all the right things about how the transfers shouldn’t impact the game, but it’ll be hard for Louisiana’s depth to overcome so many losses.
2. QB question: Louisiana’s quarterback room was extremely banged up at the end of the season. Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Ben Wooldridge sustained an injury against South Alabama on Nov. 16 that caused him to miss the final three games of the regular season. It’s unclear if he’ll be available on Saturday. Chandler Fields was his initial replacement and he was injured in the Sun Belt Conference championship game and also could be out for the bowl game.
Even if Louisiana was fully healthy, TCU would still have a sizable advantage with Josh Hoover at quarterback and that should be a difference maker.
3. Talent edge: The Horned Frogs would’ve had the edge even if Louisiana’s roster was fully intact and over the second half of the season TCU showed that it could play up to its potential on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs closed the year on a 5-1 run that has the whole team beaming with confidence and there’s a strong internal desire to end the year on a 6-1 surge.
Louisiana is better than many Group of Five schools, but the Ragin’ Cajuns were blown out 31-3 by Marshall in their last game of the season and also lost to South Alabama and Tulane. Quality teams for sure, but TCU is better than all three and as long as the Horned Frogs are focused there’s no reason they shouldn’t deliver their fourth loss.
Three reasons why TCU will be upset in the New Mexico Bowl
1. Lack of focus: TCU players and coaches all said they were excited about the opportunity to play, but that could always just be coach speak. There likely won’t be many fans there and there could be disappointment about playing a mid-major instead of a SEC opponent, like the Horned Frogs were projected to face most of the year.
If TCU gets off to a slow start and allows a hungry team like Louisiana to build early momentum, the Horned Frogs could find themselves in a much closer game than anticipated.
2. Old habits return: There were two main reasons TCU sat at 3-3 at the midway point of the season. One was the inability to limit turnovers and the other was a struggling run defense that was gashed by SMU, UCF and Houston. Most of those issues were cleaned up in the latter half of the year with the exception of Baylor, who defeated TCU 37-34 in Waco on Nov. 2.
Without their top receivers and potentially using a backup quarterback, expect Louisiana to lean on the running game hard to control the clock and keep TCU’s offense off the field. If the TCU run defense from September and October shows up then the Horned Frogs could be in trouble.
3. Missing Savion and Bech: On paper,TCU should be able to withstand the loss of the two players that led the team in yards from scrimmage. Eric McAlister and JP Richardson are both expected to play and had over 650 receiving yards this season. They’re more than capable of filling in, but there’s no doubt that Williams and Bech were the heart and soul of the offense.
Williams’ role in the backfield as a running back/wildcat quarterback was one of the many reasons TCU was able to turn around its season. But with Williams not available and freshman quarterback Hauss Hejny in the portal, TCU could be without one of its key offensive packages. Will the Horned Frogs still be able to run effectively without Williams? Will McAlister and Richardson get the same looks without Bech and Williams on the field?
TCU’s depth at receiver has to be a difference maker against Louisiana.
