Three reasons why TCU football will win or lose its rivalry game against Baylor in Waco
Three Reasons Why is back with another special rivalry edition as TCU makes the short trip to Waco to take on the Bears in an attempt to extend its two-game winning streak.
It’s always intense when the two rivals meet as two of the previous three matchups had playoff implications. The stakes won’t be quite as big this time, but there’s still much to play for and I’m not talking about the silly trophy the schools debuted last season for newly dubbed Bluebonnet Battle.
Sorry, TCU and Baylor, Revivalry just has a much better ring to it. Back to the football, both teams have two-game winning streaks with the Bears (4-4 overall, 2-3 in Big 12) fighting for bowl eligibility while TCU (5-3, 3-2) is trying to keep its slim hopes of making the Big 12 title game alive.
The Horned Frogs rolled Baylor last season 42-17, but this year’s matchup projects to be closer. Here’s three reasons why TCU could extend its winning streak or have it snapped by their rival.
Three reasons why TCU will defeat Baylor
1. Mental edge: The Horned Frogs have dominated this series over the last decade with four straight wins and eight wins in the last 10 games overall. Whether TCU was the heavy favorite or underdog hasn’t matter recently as TCU has always found a way to outlast the Bears. There was the breakout game from Chandler Morris in 2021 and the Bazooka field goal in 2022 followed by last season’s blowout.
Most players on the TCU roster don’t what it feels like to lose to Baylor and that should energize the team in a hostile environment.
2. Exploitable defense: It’s been a long time since the Bears were able to play defense up to the standard of Dave Aranda. The Bears have made modest improvements since last season, but Baylor still only ranks 80th in scoring defense. The Bears allowed at least 28 points in every Big 12 game except an early season defeat to Utah. TCU’s offense can be sporadic at times, but the Horned Frogs have shown the ability to score in bunches against overmatched defense. The Horned Frogs should be able to score 30 points.
3. Road warriors?: The Horned Frogs endured a blowout on the road at SMU, but aside from that TCU has actually played much better and more consistently away from Amon G. Carter Stadium with a 3-1 record on the season. The biggest difference has been on defense with Stanford, Utah and the second half against Kansas being the best stretches TCU has played. Multiple players have said TCU’s success on the road is due to the Horned Frogs playing like their backs are against the wall.
The Horned Frogs must maintain that ability in Waco.
Three reasons why Baylor will snap TCU’s winning streak
1. Hot QB: Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been on fire the last three weeks as the Bears’ offense has shaken out of an early season slump. Over the last three games Robertson has thrown for 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. The offensive line has protected him well with just one sack allowed in the last three games.
Robertson’s accuracy can be inconsistent as he’s completed less than 60% of his passes in four of the last five games, but he’s consistent enough in the pocket to pick apart opposing defenses.
2. Another rushing test: TCU has shown steady improvement with its rushing defense over the last two weeks as TCU held Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks and Utah’s Micah Bernard to an average of just 88 yards. Brooks did eclipse 100 yards, but wasn’t able to truly impact the game like he did against TCU in 2023. Baylor will present a different challenge as the Bears don’t have one standout running back, but they do have three capable options they believe in.
The Bears have rushed for at least 250 yards in the last two games. If they’re able to get close to that number then TCU is in trouble.
3. Elite special teams: Sonny Dykes went out of his way during the week to mention how elite the Bears are on special teams and that could be enough to be the difference if the game is close. Baylor leads the Big 12 in punt return yardage and yards per return The Bears also lead the league in average yards per punt. Baylor will have confidence that it can win the field position battle against TCU and the Horned Frogs must play a clean game on special teams to not give Baylor the edge.
This story was originally published November 1, 2024 at 3:00 AM.
