Three reasons why TCU will defeat Texas Tech or be upset again at home
It’s another rivalry week edition of Three Reasons Why as TCU returns to Amon G. Carter Stadium to face Texas Tech in a pivotal Big 12 game.
TCU may have saved its season with a road win against Utah and a path to a bowl game is much clearer now. However, the Red Raiders will come into Saturday’s game motivated to avoid another conference loss and to stay in the race for a slot in the Big 12 title game.
On paper, this could be an old-fashioned Big 12 shootout between two of the best passing offenses in the Big 12. Here are three reasons why TCU could come out on top or fail to keep pace with Texas Tech:
Three reasons why TCU will beat Texas Tech
1. The Red Raiders defense: As much as the Horned Frogs have struggled on defense, it’s nothing compared to Texas Tech’s issues on defense. The Red Raiders are allowing 36.1 points per game, seven points more than the next closest team. Texas Tech also allows more than 300 yards per game, almost 60 more yards than the closest team in the league. Abilene Christian and Baylor eclipsed 50 points against the Red Raiders.
TCU has more firepower than both of those teams and should aim to score at least 35 points.
2. A more confident defense?: Utah isn’t an offensive juggernaut by any means, but TCU’s defense showed a level of physicality and resiliency on the road that’s rarely been seen this season. Holding the Utes to just one touchdown was a reminder to the unit of their potential. It’s unlikely that TCU will shut Texas Tech down, but the Horned Frogs have a more reliable defense.
The game will likely come down to which team can get a timely stop or two and the Horned Frogs should feel more confident that it will be their defense rising up in those moments.
3. Josh Hoover: Hoover’s scorching start to the season has cooled off a bit as turnovers have mounted. Part of the giveaways is the lack of a running game forcing Hoover to feel like he has to do too much. The Horned Frogs should be able to establish some type of running game against the Red Raiders which should allow Hoover to have an easier time picking apart the Red Raiders defense.
When Hoover’s decision making is on point, he’s looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Texas Tech on paper doesn’t have a defense that should provide too much of a challenge to Hoover. In what could be a shootout, Hoover will have to outduel Behren Morton and he’s certainly capable.
Three reasons why TCU will fall to Texas Tech
1. More balanced offense: Unlike the Horned Frogs, Texas Tech has been effective with both its passing and rushing attack this season. Morton is averaging over 275 passing yards per game while running back Tahj Brooks has rushed at least 100 yards in every game this season. No team has fully been able to shut Texas Tech down except for Washington State, but even in that game Texas Tech outgained the Cougars and averaged almost six yards per play.
Even if TCU is able to slow down one aspect of the Texas Tech offense, the Red Raiders will have a counter punch.
2. Untested TCU secondary: On paper the Horned Frogs have a secondary that matches up well with Texas Tech’s passing offense. The Horned Frogs currently have the second best passing defense in the Big 12, but those numbers are a bit misleading due to how often teams have had success running the ball against the Horned Frogs’ defensive line. Why throw the ball down field when you can average six yards per carry?
No team has been able exploit TCU being without corners Avery Helm and Vernon Glover, but the Red Raiders likely will with the best receiver room TCU has faced this season according to Sonny Dykes.
3. Home struggles: Surprisingly, the Horned Frogs have struggled at home this season with the lone victory coming over FCS opponent Long Island. TCU blew a three possession lead against UCF and was shut down by a bad Houston team at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Over the last 10 games, TCU is just 5-5 in Fort Worth, meaning the Red Raiders won’t have reason to feel intimidated on the road Saturday.
TCU has to play with the same energy it had against Kansas, Stanford and Utah on the road at home if the Horned Frogs want to pull out a victory in this rivalry game.
