Three reasons why TCU will upset or fall on the road to Utah
After a week off, Three Reasons Why is back with another special edition as TCU is set to face a former rival.
The Horned Frogs and Utah Utes haven’t played in more than a decade since their days at the elite programs in the Mountain West Conference. Since that time both programs have elevated with Utah winning multiple Pac-12 championships and TCU reaching the national championship game in the 2022 season.
The two programs, known for punching above their weight classes ,will now try to deliver the knockout blow to the other. With both teams sitting at 1-2 in league play, the loser is all but eliminated from the conference title race while the victor stays alive for another week.
Here are three reasons why TCU will defeat or fall to Utah:
Three reasons why TCU will upset Utah
1. No Rising: Utah’s starting quarterback Cam Rising was ruled out against TCU on Monday and it immediately bolstered TCU’s chance of pulling off the upset. The Utes went from a -7.5 point favorite to -4.5 on most sportsbooks. One player being worth three points to Vegas, says a lot about Rising’s value. True freshman Isaac Wilson will take over and he’s started three games with a 2-1 record.
However, a case could be made the Utes won in spite of Wilson. On the season he’s thrown seven interceptions to just six touchdowns. His quarterback rating of 43.8 is 100th in the country. TCU’s secondary may be able to steal possessions if they can force Wilson into mistakes.
2. The receivers: TCU’s depth at wide receiver must play a vital role if the Horned Frogs want to knock off the Utes. The Utes are equally strong against the pass and the run, but TCU will have the deepest group of receivers with Jack Bech, Savion Williams, JP Richardson and Eric McAlister. The best receiver Utah has faced this season was Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, who Utah held to 50 yards on six receptions.
Utah won’t be able to just key in on one receiver against TCU. If the offensive line protects Josh Hoover, then the Horned Frogs may have a chance to win some battles against the Utes’ secondary.
3. Desperation?: Utah certainly has its fair share of flaws, but it’s hard to find many that TCU can expect to exploit. One thing the Horned Frogs can do is come out energized and play with a sense of desperation like Houston did to them in the Oct. 4 upset at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Sonny Dykes has constantly said it hasn’t felt like TCU has been the more excited team to play and that has to change on Saturday or the Horned Frogs have no shot.
Three reasons why Utah will defeat TCU
1. Home field advantage: Before losing to Arizona on Sept. 28, Utah had won over 30 straight games against unranked competition. Even great teams like USC and Oregon have struggled to pull out wins in Salt Lake City. It’ll be a primetime game with a full crowd that is anxious to start another home winning streak. The Horned Frogs haven’t fared well in environments like this the past two seasons.
2. Elite rusher: The Horned Frogs must prepare to face another top running back as Utah’s Micah Bernard is quietly putting together one of the best seasons in the country. Bernard is fifth in the Big 12 with 676 yards while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Bernard has carried the offense whole Utah has worked through its quarterback issues and now he’ll face TCU’s leaky rushing defense.
The Horned Frogs have faced three top tier running backs this season in UCF’s RJ Harvey, Kansas’ Devin Neal and SMU’s Breshard Smith. TCU allowed an average of 126 yards with each tailback averaging better than six yards per carry. If Bernard is able to do the same then TCU’s chances of winning will be slim.
3. Physicality: One reason Utah has been able to compete with some of college football’s best despite the talent disadvantage is the program’s commitment to physicality and being fundamentally sound. The Utes aren’t known for beating themselves and will have the edge over a TCU team that averages nearly twice as many penalty yards per game and has struggled with turnovers over the last three games.
That’s before we get to how Utah’s physical front seven and offensive line has what it takes to take over games. Teams like SMU and Houston have been able to push TCU around, what will the Utes do?
