Analysis: Can TCU football handle Kansas’ diverse rushing attack?
The blueprint on how to beat TCU is out and so far, it hasn’t taken a lot of complexity for teams like SMU and UCF to defeat the Horned Frogs.
TCU is currently No. 14 in the Big 12 in rushing defense with teams averaging just under 177 yards per game. UCF rushed for 289 while SMU had 238. Speaking at his weekly press conference, TCU coach Sonny Dykes had a pretty good idea of what to expect from Kansas on Saturday.
“Kansas already runs the ball 68% of the time,” Dykes said. “My guess is it’s going to be 75-80% run. I would certainly assume that and I would do the same thing, I would run the ball until we stop them. They’re very good at doing it.”
The Jayhawks are currently second in the Big 12 in rushing with over 240 yards on the ground per game. While that is a full 135 yards less than the league leading UCF, the Jayhawks have done it against more stiff competition like Illinois, West Virginia and an undefeated UNLV team.
The rushing attack is spearheaded by Devin Neal, who has quietly been one of the best running backs in the country the last three seasons. He had back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns in 2022 and 2023 and is off to a tremendous start this season.
Neal is currently No. 4 in the Big 12 in rushing with 443 yards and three touchdowns while averaging over six yards per carry. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in every game this season, whether it was him rushing for chunk plays or grinding out four to five yards on the ground in a more physical manner.
Neal is a big reason why Kansas has so much confidence in its rushing attack and the Jayhawks aren’t afraid to run it in just about any scenario.
“I’ve never seen a team run the ball more in third and medium,” Dykes said. “When they get to six yards on third down, they’re almost all run. It’s just because they’re trying to get it to a fourth and short and go for it. They go for it at a high percentage of the time.”
It’s not just Neal or Kansas’ commitment to the run game that should have the TCU defense worried, it’s the complexity of the scheme that could cause the most damage.
SMU and UCF’s rushing attack was straight forward with both teams relying heavily on inside zone, halfback power concepts and run-pass options (RPO).
Kansas will use some of the same plays, but their playbook of run plays is much more wide-ranging and difficult to prepare for.
“They just have a lot of experience at what they do, they’re very good at it,” Dykes said. “They run pretty much every single run scheme that I’ve seen run. I’ve never seen a team that has more offense from a running perspective than these guys. They can run a million different schemes then you start putting the option stuff in, the speed, the triple and that’s some people’s entire offense.
“Then they have another entire run offense and then another entire run offense within that. Those guys do a tremendous job of teaching all the things that they teach.”
The Jayhawks aren’t afraid to try to go right through a defense, yet Kansas also has enough speed in the backfield to attack the edge of defenses as well. The ultimate wildcard in this one will be quarterback Jalon Daniels.
Before the season, many expected Daniels to be an All-Big 12 quarterback and maybe more after two prolific, but injury riddled seasons. He hasn’t looked like himself so far this season though.
Take out Daniels’ freshman season in 2020 and he’s averaging a career-low in completion percentage (56.3%), yards per attempt (6.5), passer rating (110.2) while also throwing a career-high seven interceptions in just four games. He’s rushed for over 100 yards, but still doesn’t look as explosive as he did in 2022 when he was averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
What’s the reasoning behind his slump? Some believe it has to do with the offensive coordinator switch Kansas dealt with this off-season as Penn State hired Andy Kotelnicki this off-season and the Jayhawks replaced him with Jeff Grimes.
Kansas had two straight seasons of a top-25 scoring offense, but currently ranks No. 79 in the country. Remember TCU’s last trip to Lawrence where it felt like Kansas was scheming guys wide open all game, even when Daniels was replaced with backup Jason Bean due to injury?
The offense isn’t as exotic or productive, but all it takes is one game for a unit to start feeling confidence. With Daniels’ turnover problems, expect the Jayhawks to lean more on him in the running game with option and quarterback power concepts.
If TCU is somehow able to make Daniels beat them in the air, then TCU will have a great opportunity to snap its two-game losing streak. That strategy didn’t work against UCF or SMU, but maybe the third time will be the charm.
This story was originally published September 26, 2024 at 5:00 AM.
