Three reasons why TCU will start Big 12 play 1-0 or 0-1 against UCF
It’s the start of Big 12 play for TCU which means another edition of Three Reasons Why.
The first two games for the Horned Frogs were easy to predict how they would play out. As long as TCU didn’t get in its own way, victory was a near certainty against Stanford and Long Island.
But the league opener against UCF, on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium, will be much more difficult to call. Unlike LIU and Stanford, the Knights will be able to match TCU’s personnel in many areas and in some, they’ll have a talent advantage.
Adding to the intrigue in the first matchup between the two programs is the fact both have played inferior competition, with Stanford being the best team either has faced, which isn’t saying much. The winner has a case as being a darkhorse conference title contender while the loser will be playing catch up.
Here’s three reasons why TCU will start Big 12 play 1-0 or 0-1:
Three reasons why TCU will start Big 12 play 1-0
1. Home field advantage: The Horned Frogs get the benefit of facing UCF early and in the friendly confines of Amon G. Carter Stadium. Over 6,000 students attended TCU’s win over Long Island in a better than expected environment. A blackout game at the Carter against a much better opponent should only bring in more fans to create a rowdy environment.
Under Sonny Dykes TCU is 12-3 at home. The Horned Frogs aren’t unbeatable at home, but recent history suggests the game will be close at the very least.
2. Defensive progression: The Horned Frogs have looked like an entirely new defense so far under new coordinator Andy Avalos with dominant performances against Stanford and LIU. The competition was underwhelming, but it was encouraging to see the defense not play down to the level of its opponent. TCU has great depth on defense and could potentially get another pass rusher back Saturday in Paul Oyewale.
TCU’s attacking style on defense with so much movement from rushers will be the most complex defense UCF has faced so far and it could take the Knights time to adjust. A timely turnover or two, could help TCU break this one open.
3. Josh Hoover: If Josh Hoover can outduel KJ Jefferson, then it may be time to have a serious conversation about rethinking Hoover’s place among the top quarterbacks in the Big 12. So far this season Hoover has been sensational with 620 yards passing, four touchdowns and most importantly no interceptions. The offensive line deserves some credit as they’ve kept Hoover clean and they’re facing a defensive line that is talented, but only managed one sack against Sam Houston State and New Hampshire.
Another 300-yard, 3-touchdown performance could be enough to help the Horned Frogs get off to a great start in Big 12 play.
Three reasons why TCU will start Big 12 play 0-1
1. KJ Jefferson: Jefferson will be one of the most experienced quarterbacks TCU has faced this season with Jefferson having over 40 starts in the SEC. The Arkansas transfer is listed at nearly 250 pounds and is a problematic dual-threat quarterback that has seen almost every type of defense. TCU’s defense has struggled with the quarterback run games at times as Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels rushed for 87 yards while LIU’s most successful offense came on the read option.
Being disciplined reading the option and getting multiple people to bring down Jefferson in space will be key. The Horned Frogs must make Jefferson beat them with his arms.
2. Speed: The Knights may have the fastest collection of skill players TCU will face this season led by RJ Harvey and Kobe Hudson. Harvey is averaging nearly nine yards per carry coming off a season in 2023 where he rushed for over 1,400 yards and added 16 touchdowns. One missed tackle and Harvey can turn a four-yard gain into a 40-yarder. TCU’s tackling in space has been pretty good, but Harvey’s much more elusive than any back the defense has seen so far.
Hudson is averaging over 23 yards per catch and averaged over 20 last season. He’s another player that can turn a simple bubble screen into a chunk play. TCU matched up well with Stanford star receiver Elic Ayomanor in the opener, but Hudson’s a different type of receiver relying on his speed instead of physicality. He’ll also have a much better quarterback attempting to get him touches. If either has a big game, then TCU will have its hands full.
3. O-line not ready: While the offensive line has done a great job of protecting Hoover, the same can’t be said for the rushing attack which ranks near the bottom of the Big 12 despite the competition TCU has faced this season. The Horned Frogs have said they’ve seen different looks than anticipated, which has led to the struggles, but at same point the unit has to be able to adjust quicker to the defensive fronts they’re facing. The Knights have been stout against the run, will TCU be the first team to establish the ground game against UCF?
If not, it could prove difficult to keep pace with UCF’s offense if the Horned Frogs are forced to be one-dimensional.
