Three reasons TCU will defeat or be upset by Stanford in the season opener
You know it’s football season when Three Reasons returns to action.
The Horned Frogs’ agonizing wait to redeem themselves after a disappointing 2023 season will be over on Friday when TCU travels to face Stanford in Palo Alto, Calif.
The Cardinal were one of the worst teams in a power conference last season and expectations aren’t high for the program in 2024. This is the type of game that can help TCU build early momentum with a victory or it could a signal of trouble in the future with the defeat.
The Horned Frogs are the more talented team, but that doesn’t guarantee victory as we learned last season. Here are three reasons why TCU will defeat Stanford or be upset in the season opener again like it was against Colorado last season:
Three reasons why TCU will beat Stanford
1. Offensive firepower: The Cardinal had one of the worst defenses in the country last season, allowing more than 37 points and 460 yards of total offense per game. While Stanford isn’t devoid of playmakers on that side of the ball, this should still be a matchup where TCU’s offense can find a rhythm early. With the emergence of Savion Williams during training camp, the Horned Frogs are eager to see how their star receiver matches up with other defenders.
The Stanford defensive line was also pushed around last season when it allowed more than 160 yards on the ground with teams averaging almost five yards per carry. TCU should aim to have similar success on Friday and the team has the personnel to do so.
2. Quarterback uncertainty: The Cardinal return their quarterback from last season in Ashton Daniels, but Daniels was inconsistent at best. He completed just 58.8% of his passes and most of his 11 touchdown passes came against Colorado and Sacramento State. Daniels also adds value on the ground and had three rushing touchdowns as well last season. But the Cardinal could easily play multiple quarterbacks including freshman Elijah Brown and Justin Lamson. Lamson led the team in rushing, but only completed 43.2% of his passes.
No matter who is under center for Stanford there will be questions and if TCU’s defense has really taken a step with its pass rush then this is the game where the defensive line will be able to show it.
3. Hospitable environment: When TCU went on the road to start the 2022 season against Colorado, Boulder was rocking with a near sellout crowd and passionate student section that led the Horned Frogs hear it early and often. It played a part in TCU’s sluggish start on that Friday night, but the environment in Stanford will likely be much different. Stanford doesn’t begin classes until Sept. 23, meaning there could be a very limited presence of students at the game.
It’s still a road game on the other side of the country, but the potential lack of hostility should ease TCU’s burden. Palo Alto isn’t Manhattan, Lubbock or Ames.
Three reasons Stanford will upset TCU
1. Avery Helm: The Horned Frogs will be without returning starter Avery Helm on Friday after he sufferred a serious lower body injury early in camp. Helm’s absence could be felt early against Stanford star receiver Elic Ayomanor. Ayomanor torched Travis Hunter for 294 yards in Stanford’s biggest win of the year. He piled up 1, 103 yards and six touchdowns and is clearly Stanford’s best overall player. The Horned Frogs have two transfer corners in JaTravis Broughton and LaMareon James that have starting experience, but will they be able to match up with Ayomanor?
If Ayomanor has anything close to the performance had against Colorado then TCU could be in trouble.
2. Offensive line questions: TCU remade its offensive line through transfer portal with at least three of the projected starters having played elsewhere in 2023. The offensive line was adequate during training camp, especially at run blocking, but TCU’s pass rush won a lot of its rep against the offensive line. Was that indicative of TCU’s strength on defense or a potential glaring weakness up front? If it’s the latter and TCU can’t protect Josh Hoover then the Horned Frogs could easily find themselves on upset alert.
3. Same ole’ issues: The Horned Frogs struggled mightily in situational football like red zone offense and winning the turnover battle. It directly cost them two games against Colorado and West Virginia along with increasing the difficulty of pulling off the upset against Texas last season. So how could Stanford win this game on Friday? If TCU makes the same mistakes like critical interceptions or fumbles in scoring distance or if freshman kicker Kyle Lemmerman struggles in his rookie debut.
TCU worked diligently on situational moments throughout camp, but if the team doesn’t make real progress then Stanford could capitalize on the Horned Frogs’ mistakes like last year’s opponents.
