Four things to watch in TCU’s must-win game at Kansas State
With March approaching, the stakes only continue to increase for TCU which heads on the road at 11 a.m. Saturday to face Kansas State for the first time this season.
The Horned Frogs and Wildcats clashed three times with TCU (17-7, 6-5) taking the season series with an impressive win in the Big 12 Tournament. As outlined in this week’s basketball notebook, this is a must-win game for TCU which hasn’t locked up an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Even with the Wildcats (15-9, 5-6) taking a step back after last year’s run to the Elite Eight, this still projects as a tough contest for the Horned Frogs. Here are four things you need to know:
New look Cats
K-State had some of the Big 12’s biggest stars last season in Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. They were impressive players and also had captivating stories with Nowell’s small 5-foot-8 stature and Johnson coming back from a scary heart injury to be one of the Big 12’s best players. However, Johnson and Nowell are now in the NBA while K-State’s 2022-23 third-leading scorer Nae’Qwan Tomlin is now playing for Memphis.
The Wildcats’ fourth- and sixth-leading scorers are also no longer on the roster. Junior guard Camryn Carter is one of the few returners that had a significant role last season and Carter has broken out with his best season. The 6-3 guard is averaging 15.9 points and five rebounds per game while shooting nearly 50 percent on all shots inside the 3-point arc. Carter can struggle with turnovers as he averages more turnovers than assists.
Despite being a slightly below average 3-point shooter at 31 percent, Carter still attempts more than six per game. He’ll let it fly and be aggressive looking for his shot, TCU has to use that to its advantage.
Portal reinforcements
With so much production departing K-State coach Jerome Tang had to hit the transfer portal to keep the team afloat and he landed a pair of good ones. North Texas guard Tylor Perry was one of the most coveted guards in the portal and his raw numbers have remained pretty good while making the jump up in competition. Perry is averaging 14.8 points and a team-high 4.7 assists. However it should be noted his efficiency from the floor has plummeted in the Big 12.
Perry shot 44 percent from the field and 41 percent of his 3-point attempts at North Texas. Now he’s shooting 34 percent from the field and 31 percent from 3. While he’s shown growth as a floor general, getting buckets hasn’t come as easy for the 5-11 point guard.
There’s a case that could be made that Creighton transfer Arthur Kaluma might be the Wildcats’ most important player.
The 6-7 junior is averaging a career-high 14.5 points and is K-State’s best shooter and top rebounder with 7.2 per game. This should be an intriguing matchup between him and Emanuel Miller, two forwards that are trying to cement themselves as potential second-round picks in the NBA Draft.
Manhattan a safe space
There have been two versions of the Wildcats this year: the team that plays at Bramlage Coliseum and the one that players everywhere else. Twelve of K-State’s 15 wins have come in Manhattan while the Wildcats are just 3-7 away from home. The 12-2 home record wasn’t just built on beating up cupcakes. The Wildcats have taken down quality competition in Manhattan.
The Wildcats upset Baylor in overtime on Jan. 16 and followed that with another overtime win over Kansas on Feb. 4. There was also a home win over Providence in the non-conference. It should be noted the two losses at the Coliseum came in blowout fashion to Oklahoma and Nebraska with that win being the sole road victory for the Cornhuskers so far.
K-State isn’t unbeatable at home, but the task will be daunting for TCU which struggled there last year.
What the numbers say
The Wildcats are currently ranked No. 77 in the latest NCAA Net Rankings which makes Saturday a Quad 2 game for TCU. It wouldn’t be a signature win, but it should provide a modest boost the resume. In terms of the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats currently aren’t on the bubble by most projections meaning the desperation should be rising for Kansas State.
The Wildcats aren’t the most potent offensive team, but there is some data that shows how tenacious Kansas State can be on defense. According to KenPom, the top analytics college basketball site, the Wildcats are No. 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. This calculates points allowed per 100 possessions and also adjusts for quality of opponent. So while Kansas State’s scoring defense may be outside the top-100, when you factor in the strength of schedule the Wildcats are better than might expect.
Establishing tempo will be key for TCU offsetting the Wildcats’ defensive potential. While the Horned Frogs are top-75 in adjusted tempo and still remain one of the country’s best fastbreak teams, Kansas State is just No. 222 in tempo. The Horned Frogs can’t let the game turn into a grudge match.
