Analysis: Three questions facing TCU basketball in the final stretch of Big 12 play
The first half of Big 12 season came to a disappointing end for TCU as the Horned Frogs fell 77-66 to Texas on Saturday in the Longhorns’ final game in Schollmaier Arena as a league opponent.
The game was tied at 64 with 3:53 remaining before Texas guard Max Abmas went on a personal 13-2 run to close the game. His heroics spoiled a tremendous home crowd for the Horned Frogs.
In the grand scheme of the things, the loss doesn’t hurt TCU much outside of bragging rights.
The Horned Frogs fell out of the latest Associated Press Top 25, but their seeding projections for the NCAA Tournament weren’t impacted much.
TCU should view the first half of league play as a success as the Horned Frogs are only a half-game behind first place teams Houston and Kansas. Going 5-4 or better in the next stretch should be more than enough to lock up a NCAA Tournament bid and could keep TCU in contention for the league title.
While the first half of league play showed a number of TCU’s strengths, it also showed a few areas the team must address before March Madness.
Here are three questions facing TCU in the final half of league play, which begins Satuday at home against Iowa State:
Is ball pressure a weakness for TCU?
There’s been a pretty common theme in most of the Horned Frogs’ Big 12 defeats. In three losses to Cincinnati, Iowa State and Texas, the Horned Frogs averaged 20 turnovers including 27 against the Cyclones and 19 against Cincinnati. That’s well above their season average of 13 and head coach Jamie Dixon often says the Horned Frogs can live with 12 turnovers or less due to the pace at which the team plays.
Longhorns coach Rodney Terry said a big part of their gameplan on Saturday was having his defense be aggressive in pick-and-roll situations. The Longhorns didn’t trap the pick-and-roll, but instead used a big man to show in front of the ballhandler, or hedge, to slow his progress and let the perimeter defender recover. It led to nine first-half TCU turnovers and was a big reason the Horned Frogs trailed by double digits at halftime.
Dixon has been honest about how Jameer Nelson and Avery Anderson are transitioning from scoring guards to point guards. And while every team won’t have on-ball defenders like Texas and Iowa State, more teams will try to replicate that strategy and make TCU’s guards beat them with their passing.
What happened to the defense?
The Horned Frogs have one of the most high-powered offenses in the country, averaging over 82 points per game, 23rd best in the country. TCU has carved up some of the best defenses like Houston and Kansas while out-dueling Baylor’s top-ranked offense on the road.
Scoring at a high level is great, but TCU has lost a bit of defensive intensity.
“We’re not defending well enough to win the league,” Dixon said after the Texas loss. “We have gotten wins surprisingly on the road despite not defending well enough. I’ve got to get the message across that you’re not going to keep winning games offensively.”
The Horned Frogs held opponents to under 70 points last season while being one of the top 3-point shooting defenses in the country, holding opponents to just 31 percent. This year the defense is allowing over 71 points a game while teams are shooting about 33 percent. Opponents are shooting better than 50 percent compared to 49.2 percent last year.
The Horned Frogs held opponents to 42 percent from the field last year and that number has crept up to 44. I get it, we’re talking about a few percentages or a few points, but it all matters. Especially when games in the Big 12 are so tightly contested and often decided by a possession here or there. Texas shot 51 percent from the field and it’s not the first time a team has had such an efficient night against TCU’s defense. Improving just a little on defense could be the difference between making the Sweet Sixteen or going home in the first or second round.
Will the big man committee be enough?
TCU goes into most games knowing that the opposing frontcourt will likely out produce its contingent of Ernest Udeh, Xavier Cork and Essam Mostafa. The numbers become more even if you include JaKobe Coles in the mix at center. All four have different strengths and if you combined them into one player, he would probably be the best big in the country.
Udeh has special athleticism and has shown potential of being a solid rim protector. Cork is a steady presence in the middle and has the best footwork of the bunch. Coles is the best pure scorer, but has limitations defensively while Mostafa plays his role and is comfortable with it.
It works most nights, but Baylor, Texas, Houston and Kansas all had big men that exploited TCU’s frontcourt. You could include Clemson’s P.J. Hall in the mix if you want to go back further.
Now, every team won’t have a Hunter Dickinson or Dylan Disu, but the odds of seeing a quality big increases in the Big 12 Tournament and NCAA Tournament. Remember how Drew Timme led Gonzaga to win last year in the tournament with 28 points? The rest of the slate includes matchups against Baylor’s Yves Missi and West Virginia’s Jesse Edwards plus more. Will TCU be able to handle them?
This story was originally published February 5, 2024 at 1:38 PM.
