Three reasons why TCU could upset Oklahoma or have its season come to an end in Norman
Welcome to the Thanksgiving edition of Three Reasons Why and what could be the final one of the 2023 season.
If the Horned Frogs don’t get a win in Norman against Oklahoma on Friday (11 a.m., FOX), then the TCU’s season is over. If the team can upset the Sooners, then the Horned Frogs will go to a bowl game.
As much as TCU has struggled on the road this season, there’s a path for the Horned Frogs to pull off a second straight upset of the Sooners before they depart to the SEC.
Here’s three reasons why TCU will get it done or go home:
Three reasons why TCU will upset Oklahoma in Norman
1. No Gabriel?: The Sooners could be without star quarterback Dillon Gabriel for the regular season finale. If he can’t play, TCU’s chances to win drastically improve. How good has Gabriel been for Oklahoma this year? He leads the Big 12 in passing yards, passing touchdowns, passer efficiency, passing yards per game and has only thrown five interceptions in 11 starts.
Gabriel is also tied for fourth in the league in rushing touchdowns with 11. He’s been the ultimate answer in the red zone for Oklahoma and is one of the best quarterbacks in America. If he can’t play, the Sooners will turn to five-star freshman Jackson Arnold. The Denton Guyer alum is talented, but hasn’t played much and he’s going to be prone to some mistakes in his first start.
2. The Sooners’ secondary: Oklahoma has shown a lot of improvement on defense from last season. But as the Sooners have gotten deeper into Big 12 play, there have been some flaws that have been exposed. Most of those have come in the secondary where there’s talent, but still too many big plays given up.
Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman threw for 334 yards in the win over the Sooners while UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee threw for two touchdowns and almost 250 yards coming off an injury. The Golden Knights were a two-point conversion away from going overtime in Norman. If TCU can protect Josh Hoover, then he could have a chance to have another big day.
3. Emani Bailey: Another common thread is how the Oklahoma defense has struggled against the run. BYU, one of the worst rushing teams in the country, saw Aidan Robbins rush for 183 yards and 8.2 yards per carry. Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon worked harder for his yards, but still finished with 137 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Kansas rushed for 225 yards despite not having Jalon Daniels.
UCF and Texas all had rushers with over 100 yards in games that were decided on the final play. If the Horned Frogs want to have a chance then Emani Bailey needs to come close to 100 yards on the ground if not more. If not, Oklahoma will just pin its ears back and come after Hoover.
Three reasons Oklahoma will end TCU’s season
1. Hoover’s road woes continue: There’s been two versions of Josh Hoover this season, the one at Amon G. Carter Stadium and the one that’s gone on the road. In two of the three games on the road Hoover has failed to complete 60% of his passes and has thrown just two touchdowns and four interceptions in three games. Those games were all difficult road trips to Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech.
Norman could be the most difficult considering the size of the stadium and the fact that the Sooners will be playing for revenge and to stay alive in the Big 12 title game. Can Hoover play like he did last week against Baylor or will it be a repeat of what we saw in Manhattan?
2. Red zone struggles: It’s a battle of one glaring weakness versus one glaring strength. The Horned Frogs are one of the worst red zone offenses in the country while Oklahoma is 22nd in the country in red zone defense. In 33 red zone situations the Sooners have allowed just 16 touchdowns. TCU already has enough issues finding points, let alone touchdowns, on its own and now they’ll be facing one of the top units in the country.
One thing’s for sure, settling for field goals or getting inside the Oklahoma 10 and not scoring will be a quick way for TCU to fall behind in this game. The Horned Frogs must better once they get inside the 20 or this one could get ugly.
3. TCU’s pass rush: Aside from Houston, the road hasn’t been kind to TCU. The Horned Frogs have given up 41, 35 and 27 to Iowa State in the other three trips away from Fort Worth. The pass rush in particular has been ineffective with no sacks in those three games.
Against the Sooners that won’t cut it. Oklahoma has the No. 1 passing offense in the Big 12 while TCU’s passing defense ranks at No. 10. Whether it’s Jackson or Gabriel, the Sooners have the scheme and personnel to carve the Horned Frogs up if they can’t get after the quarterback.
