Three reasons why TCU football can upset Texas — or slip further from bowl eligibility
TCU’s final matchup with Texas is here and the Horned Frogs find themselves trying to play spoiler against their in-state rival.
No. 7 Texas has looked like one of the best teams in the country this season and received good news Thursday when it was announced starting quarterback Quinn Ewers would return to the lineup after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury.
Meanwhile TCU will start redshirt freshman Josh Hoover against the vaunted Texas defense and he must do so with a short-handed receiver group.
Here are three reasons why TCU will upset Texas or suffer another loss on the national stage:
Three reasons why TCU will upset Texas
1. Ewers isn’t 100%: It’ll be Ewers’ first game in about three weeks and he could deal with some rust from the time off. Ewers also hurt his shoulder last year against Alabama and didn’t look quite the same once he returned. Could it happens again this season? TCU will need to force turnovers and steal possessions to stay in this one and it would be advantageous if it takes awhile for Ewers to find his rhythm.
Oklahoma, the only team to beat the Longhorns this season, needed three turnovers to win a one-possession game. TCU may need the same amount.
2. Texas secondary: There aren’t many weaknesses on the Texas roster, but if there’s an area that can be exploited it’s the secondary. The Longhorns don’t have the same type of starpower on the backend like they do in the front seven. Quarterbacks have had success putting up big numbers. Houston’s Donovan Smith threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns while nearly pulling off an upset.
K-State’s Will Howard came alive in the second half and threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns with a receiver core that isn’t highly thought of. Dillon Gabriel accounted for almost 400 yards of total offense in the Sooners win. If Josh Hoover can create enough plays, TCU can put up yards on this secondary.
3. Luck: After getting seemingly every bounce last year, things have gone the opposite way this season for TCU. Red zone turnovers, missed field goals and more have plagued the Horned Frogs all season, but the team is due for at least one game where they’re able to have a clean, disciplined game similar to what we saw consistently last year.
If TCU can just win the turnover battle and find a way to score touchdowns, not field goals, in the red zone then that increases the chances of an upset.
Three reasons Texas will beat TCU
1. Trench play: The Longhorns will have an advantage on both the offensive and defensive line which will make things extremely difficult for the Horned Frogs. On offense, TCU will have to account for T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy on the defensive line. The linebackers Jaylan Ford and Anthony Hill are the best duo in the Big 12.
The offensive line is healthy with offensive tackle Kelvin Banks cleared to play Saturday. Football is a complex game, but you can often determine the outcome by asking the simple questions. Can TCU block Texas on offense and create pressure on defense? If the answer to both those question isn’t yes, then a victory will be hard to come by.
2. Jonathon Brooks: Teams with productive rushing attacks haven’t had problems moving the ball on the TCU defense and it’s hard to see how the Horned Frogs will stop Texas running back Jonathon Brooks. How good has Brooks been this season? Let’s just say many in Austin aren’t missing Bijan Robinson, a top-10 pick in last year’s NFL Draft.
Brooks has over 1,000 yards and can hurt you as a runner or receiver. No team has held Brooks under 98 yards since Alabama in Week 2. Unless TCU can replicate that defensive performance it’ll be hard to slow down the Texas offense.
3. Tackling: In most of TCU’s losses there’s been one common theme; the inability of TCU’s defense to get opposing ball carriers on the ground. The Horned Frogs had over 20 missed tackles against Colorado and Texas Tech and who knows how many in the blowout loss at Kansas State.
Tackling in space will be crucial for not just Brooks, but also the rest of Texas’ talent group of skill players. Xavier Worthy is one of the most dynamic receivers in the country while Adonai Mitchell and Ja’Tavion Sanders are big-time players in their own right. Missed tackles against the Longhorns will result in a touchdowns and TCU doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in a shootout.
If the Horned Frogs can’t show better technique and effort then the odds of slowing Texas down are slim.
This story was originally published November 10, 2023 at 9:58 AM.
