Three reasons why TCU will win or stumble at Texas Tech
The Battle for the Saddle could easily be renamed the Battle of 2023’s most disappointing Big 12 teams.
TCU and Texas Tech have failed to live up to preseason expectations and find themselves in a must-win game on Thursday if either program wants to reach a bowl game.
It’ll be a battle of backup quarterbacks, plus another tough road test for TCU which has struggled mightily away from Amon G. Carter Stadium.
November is the most important month of the college football season and the Horned Frogs want to finish it 4-0, starting with a win in Lubbock. Here’s three reasons why that will or won’t happen:
Three reasons why TCU will beat Texas Tech on the road
1. Shaky QB play?: Injuries haven’t been kind to the Red Raiders’ quarterback room as Tyler Shough is out for the year and Behren Morton has also missed time with nagging injuries. Third-string quarterback Jake Strong struggled mightily trying to fill in. The Horned Frogs will face Morton first on Thursday and it will be a good opportunity for the secondary to bounce back.
Morton has a quarterback rating of just 48.3 and hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in five games this season despite Tech returning most of its top receivers from a year ago. This is a better matchup for TCU’s defense and if they can keep Morton under 200 yards then TCU will have a chance to leave Lubbock with a win.
2. Run defense losing steam?: Texas Tech started the season strong against the run. The Red Raiders limited Oregon’s explosive rushing attack to just 3.6 yards per carry when the two teams met in Lubbock earlier in the year. However as the season has progressed the effectiveness of the front seven has begun to wane.
Last week in the loss to BYU, the Cougars averaged five yards per carry and rushed for 150 yards. BYU had been one of the worst rushing teams in the country leading up to that. In the loss to Kansas State, the Red Raiders were helpless to stop the Wildcats ground-and-pound attack with K-State almost topping 300 yards rushing. This could be an opportunity for TCU to let Emani Bailey carry them to victory.
3. Lack of pass rush: There’s no Tyree Wilson on the roster for the Red Raiders this season and it’s the main reason Texas Tech sits in the bottom half of the league in sacks. On the season Tech currently ranks 10th just ahead of teams like BYU and Houston, two teams that TCU handled with ease.
This should mean that Josh Hoover will have more time to throw than he did the last time on the field against Kansas State. Texas Tech’s secondary has been solid, but has shown tendency to struggle against a quick passing game. Expect Hoover to get the ball out of his hands quickly and let his receivers do the work. If they can, TCU’s offense could have a solid day in Lubbock.
Three reasons why TCU will stumble in Lubbock
1. Tahj Brooks: Surprisingly Texas Tech has one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country led by Brooks. Brooks is top-10 in the country with 891 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The bruiser averages 5.5 yards per carry and has rushed for at least 98 yards in six straight games.
With the way K-State pushed around TCU with its rushing attack, expect the Red Raiders to have a similar gameplan with Morton coming off an energy. If the Horned Frogs can’t keep him under 100 yards it could be a long night.
2. Another road test for Hoover: Winning on the road is hard and Josh Hoover learned that firsthand in Manhattan against Kansas State. Once again this will be another primetime game and with it being a rivalry game the crowd in Lubbock should be similar in hostility to the environment at Kansas State.
How does Hoover handle that? He looked like a freshman making his first road start after an impressive debut against BYU the week before. If the crowd and Tech defense is able to get to Hoover then it could be another tough day for the talented redshirt freshman.
3. TCU can’t get off the field: Thursday will be a battle one of the most aggressive offenses on fourth down against one of the stingiest defenses on fourth down. The Red Raiders have attempted nearly 30 fourth down conversion and have converted roughly 66% of the time in those situations.
Meanwhile the Horned Frogs are only allowing opponents first down in those situations about 32% of the time. Stopping Texas Tech on third down won’t be enough Thursday and if TCU can’t continue to be excellent on fourth down then there’s a path to victory for the Red Raiders.
