Steven Johnson: Why the BYU game could be one of Sonny Dykes’ most important games so far
In the preseason, most including myself, figured Saturday’s TCU-BYU matchup would be a footnote and relatively smooth victory for a Horned Frogs team ranked in the Top-25.
Fast forward a couple of months and I now find myself asking myself ‘Is this one of the most important games of Sonny Dykes’ tenure?’
I get it. It sounds foolish when you consider that TCU was in the college football playoffs Iand the national title game nine months ago right?
But here’s what I mean when I say important. Last year was a 15-game long honeymoon when the Horned Frogs didn’t just exceed modest expectations, they smashed along the way to become the first Texas team to reach the CFP.
TCU wasn’t supposed to beat Texas, TCU wasn’t supposed to beat Michigan in the national semifinal game, TCU wasn’t supposed to be anywhere the national championship game. As embarrassing as the final score against Georgia was, you can never take away the fact that TCU is one of a handful of schools to ever make it that far and one of the few schools to have a playoff win.
However, this year TCU entered the year with a higher level of expectations. The Horned Frogs were supposed to be good and supposed to contend for another spot in the Big 12 title game.
Yes there were some pundits who thought the Horned Frogs would fall back down to Earth. And while those prognosticators look correct now, it was still a small minority of pundits and fans that felt that way.
BYU represents what I like to call a swing game, one that can swing TCU back in the right direction or swing the Horned Frogs in the direction of outright panic.
Maybe TCU is panic mode already there, but it doesn’t feel that way just yet.
“We’re desperate to play well and I was encouraged by the work I saw today,” Dykes said Tuesday. “The guys’ attitude truly hasn’t been a problem for us at all this season. It’s just been about carrying over what we do in practice to the game.”
That sounds good, but the real question is what happens if the Horned Frogs drop their third straight game? Sitting at 3-3, there’s still a plausible path for TCU to reach the Big 12 title game no matter how slim its chances are.
Kansas State made it last year with two conference losses, so why can’t the Horned Frogs, right? Here’s the thing: A loss to the Cougars, who TCU is somewhat surprisingly the favorites over, would pretty much erase any chance of that happening.
Sorry folks, I don’t imagine Texas or Oklahoma falling off that big of a cliff, so what happens? What happens if for the first time in the short Dykes era that the Horned Frogs really don’t have anything to play for except pride and bowl eligibility.
Battling for position in the Pop Tarts Bowl doesn’t hit the same as competing for a Big 12 title or playoff, berth does it?
That’s why it feels like this game has massive stakes even if the stage isn’t half as big as a playoff game. A win quiets the noise for another week and likely gives fans hope if quarterback Josh Hoover plays well in his first game as a starter with Chandler Morris injured.
A loss will, and should, send people into panic mode and there will be tough questions that have to be answered like how the staff swung and missed on a number of quarterbacks late in the signing period. Or how about if there’s another lackluster showing for the offense? The questions about offensive coordinator Kendal Briles and whether it was a mistake to bring him in will intensify.
Or how TCU would have been favored in all four of its losses. Upsets happen in college football, but four times? That’s difficult to wrap your head around.
Since the CFP started in 2014 only two eams have made the playoff one year just to miss a bowl game the next. One was 2020 LSU, who went 5-5 during the COVID-impacted season. The other was 2016 Michigan State, who went 3-9 after going 12-2 the previous year.
If TCU wants to avoid making the wrong type of a history then a win over BYU is mandatory at this point.
