Three reasons TCU will avoid an upset or fall at Iowa State
The season is hanging in the balance for TCU as the Horned Frogs travel outside of Texas for the first time this season to face Iowa State on Saturday.
With that in mind, this will be a more serious edition of Three Reasons Why as another upset loss would essentially eliminate TCU from contention in anything meaningful like a Big 12 championship.
Along with staying alive in the conference race, the Horned Frogs are also hoping to make history by picking up the program’s first win in Ames since 2015.
Based on everything we’ve seen from the Cyclones, this seems like an ideal bounce back spot for TCU. But the Horned Frogs have already taught us to not take any opponent for granted.
Here are three reasons why TCU will bounce back or suffer another disappointing loss:
Three reasons why TCU will beat Iowa State
1. Surging defense: TCU’s defense continues to look as it’s turned the corner since the Colorado loss. The defense allowed 24 points in the loss to West Virginia, but the Mountaineers constantly had short fields thanks to the struggles of the TCU offense. Not to mention the defense made a number of key stops to give TCU a chance to win.
A similar performance should be enough to get the job done against Iowa State which ranks 114th nationally in scoring offense.
2. Defensive regression: The Cyclones had one of the 20 best defenses in the country last year led by first-round pick Will McDonald. Iowa State has taken a step back from very good to roughly average. There are some playmakers in the secondary like TJ Tampa, but overall this isn’t the same defense from last year. Offenses are averaging nearly 100 more yards against the Cyclones compared to last year.
It’s a capable defense, but one TCU should expect to find success against.
3. One-dimensional offense: Iowa State is one of the worst rushing teams in the country as the Cyclones average less than 100 yards per game on the ground. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Oklahoma State or Ohio, Iowa State has struggled to establish supremacy at the line of scrimmage and Rocco Becht has decent mobility, but isn’t the same runner as a Garrett Greene.
If TCU can make Becht beat them with his arm, then the Horned Frogs secondary will have ample opportunities to make game-changing plays.
Three reasons Iowa State will upset TCU
1. Special teams: One of the common threads of TCU’s two losses is its shaky special teams. The Horned Frogs missed a field goal in a three-point loss to Colorado and came up without points on three field goal attempts in the loss to West Virginia. In the win against Houston, the Cougars had a kickoff return touchdown and another big gain.
Special teams is the great equalizer and with Iowa State outmanned in numerous areas, special teams could be a way for the Cyclones to steal possessions and points.
2. Offensive line questions? The Horned Frogs faltered in the second half against the Mountaineers due to how West Virginia won the battle at the line of scrimmage. WVU kept at least seven defenders in the box and kept its safeties shallow to challenge TCU to be successful in its vertical passing game. The Horned Frogs couldn’t establish the run and couldn’t protect Chandler Morris enough as the offense was held to a single yard in the third quarter.
If Iowa State can replicate West Virginia’s second-half defensive formula then TCU could be in trouble.
3. Turnover woes return: Iowa State is just 1-3 against FBS programs and in the lone win over Oklahoma State, the Cyclones won the turnover battle by two as they picked off Alan Bowman twice. Rocco Becht also had the best game of his career with 348 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Iowa State will need extra possessions to keep pace with TCU’s offense and the Horned Frogs can’t give them away.
