Three Reasons Why TCU will beat or fall at Houston
After a temporary hiatus last week due to TCU’s inferior competition, Three Reasons Why is back and this time it’s the Big 12 edition.
The Horned Frogs (1-1) hit the road for conference play as the Houston Cougars await in what should be a historic day for their program. Houston is one of four new members to the conference and this will be the Cougars’ first conference game.
If that didn’t make the stakes high enough, just consider this game a must-win for both teams after suffering surprising early season losses to Colorado and Rice, respectively.
Records of 2-1 and 1-0 in conference play sounds a lot better than the alternative. Vegas has TCU as a touchdown favorite, so this is a winnable game for the Horned Frogs.
Here are three reasons why they’ll prove Vegas right or suffer another loss to a Power Five opponent:
Three reasons why TCU will beat Houston
1. Special teams: Aside from Griffin Kell’s missed field goal against Colorado, the Horned Frogs have been exceptional with their special teams. TCU has blocked a punt or a kick two weeks in a row with Blake Nowell returning last week’s blocked punt for a score.
We’ve seen explosive returns from both JoJo Earle on punt return and Major Everhart on kick returns. Jordy Sandy has remained consistent when called upon to punt. In what could be a close game, TCU making a play in this area of the game could be the difference.
2. Talent gap: While Coach Prime may have completely reshaped the Colorado roster in one off-season, the process of getting acclimated to the Power Five will take some time for the Cougars. According to the team talent composite rankings on 247Sports, TCU has the 19th most talented roster in the country while the Cougars are 49th.
Games are not played on paper, but more often than not the more talented roster wins especially when the gap is this wide. If TCU plays to its standards, it should be better across the board than Houston a year removed from the American Athletic Conference.
3. Average defense: It’s only two games, but the Cougars rank near the bottom in most of the defensive categories in the Big 12 like points per game and most first downs allowed to an opponent. Rice piled up over 450 yards of total offense while UTSA was perfectly balanced with over 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing.
By land or by air, there are plenty of avenues for the TCU offense to have success against a Houston defense that is a bit undersized in some areas. If Rice can score 28 points in regulation against Houston, TCU shouldn’t be satisfied with anything under 30 points from the offense.
Three reasons why Houston will upset TCU
1. Donovan Smith: The former Texas Tech quarterback has found a starting role with Houston and has tremendous upside when he’s making good decisions. At Tech he led the Red Raiders to two ranked wins and outplayed Frank Harris in the season opening win over UTSA.
Smith can struggle with turnovers, but he’s also the type of quarterback that can cause issues for TCU. He’s 6-foot-5, over 240 pounds and a capable runner. Will TCU be able to bring him down in the open field?
2. Ballhawking secondary: Houston’s defense isn’t great, except for one area and that’s forcing takeaways. The Cougars have forced five turnovers in two games including four interceptions from a small, but fast secondary. TCU has struggled with ball security so far with three redzone turnovers in its first two games.
The Horned Frogs saw firsthand against Colorado how costly those turnovers can be and if they can’t avoid them against the Cougars it could be another recipe for defeat.
3. TCU’s defense: Keeping Nicholls out of the endzone was a step in the right direction, but there’s only so much that can be taken from a game against FCS competition. Like Houston, TCU has its own struggles like ranking last in third down conversion defense. Opponents are converting nearly 50% of their third downs against TCU.
TCU is 13th in defensive efficiency in the conference and last in virtually every passing defense category. Houston has weapons like Samuel Brown that must be accounted for. Could we be in store for another classic shootout reminiscent of the Southwest Conference days? If TCU is unable to get consistent stops, then Saturday night could be a long one.
