There’s still much at stake for TCU basketball in final week of regular season
Hopefully your heart rate has returned to normal after a frantic 83-82 victory by TCU on the road at Texas Tech on Saturday.
The Horned Frogs nearly squandered a 12-point lead, but JaKobe Coles sank two free throws to help the Horned Frogs avoid another tough defeat.
Had he not done that, this column likely would’ve asked the question does TCU have a problem closing out close games, but the Horned Frogs found a way and now we can focus on the final week of the regular season.
Even with TCU being firmly in the NCAA Tournament field, there’s still plenty to play for, most importantly a higher seed in the Big Dance.
In the latest bracketology projections by ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi, TCU moved up to a No. 5 seed with the win over the Red Raiders. How high can TCU climb? With the amount of quality win chances left on the schedule, there are several possibilities.
Before diving into how TCU can continue to improve its resume, here’s a quick refresher on a key metric you should be paying attention to. The NCAA Evaluation Tool, better known as the NET, replaced RPI as the key metric to determining a team’s resume in 2018.
The NET rankings divide all the Division I teams into four quadrants. Quad 1 games are the most valuable type of victories while Quad 4s are the worst type of losses to suffer. The win over the Red Raiders was a Quad 1 victory and gives TCU six on the year.
That’s more than a handful of teams like Houston, Gonzaga, Marquette and is the same amount that teams like Tennessee and UCLA have.
The final home game of the season vs. Texas and the regular season finale at Oklahoma both count as Quad 1 games as of today. Let’s start with the Longhorns, who stormed back from a 18-point deficit to stun the Horned Frogs in Austin on Jan. 11.
The immediate thought for TCU will obviously be payback in the hopes of avoiding a season sweep to its in-state rivals, but a win over the Longhorns is the type of signature win that could see the Horned Frogs jump another line or two in brackets.
We’ll dig in deeper to the matchup later in the week, but the Longhorns are projected a No. 2 seed in most brackets. This is the type of opponent TCU will potentially have to go through to make a Sweet Sixteen or an Elite Eight.
The Horned Frogs came up short in a similar situation last week vs. Kansas and the Texas game will be a solid measuring stick to see how much TCU has learned from that missed opportunity.
Flipping the page to the final regular season game at Oklahoma, this screams trap game. Whatever happens against the Longhorns is sure to take a toll on TCU, whether it’s close victory or defeat.
While TCU hammered Oklahoma 79-52 on Jan. 24 at home, it could be a completely different story playing in Norman. The Sooners’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament are slim, but Oklahoma did upset Iowa State on Saturday and faces Kansas State before finishing the season with the Horned Frogs.
That’s the beauty of the Big 12, all it takes is a three-game winning streak to get back on the bubble. Upsetting TCU would give Oklahoma just enough life to keep their hopes alive in the Big 12 tournament next week.
Speaking of the conference tournament, there are still some things that need to be sorted out in seeding. At the top of the conference Kansas (24-5, 12-4), Texas (22-7, 11-5), Kansas State (22-7, 10-6) and Baylor (21-8, 10-6) all still have a shot at clinching at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title and being the top seed in the conference tourney.
Meanwhile TCU (19-10, 8-8) currently sits tied at fifth with Iowa State (17-11, 8-8), though the Cyclones will have the tiebreaker since they swept the Horned Frogs. They’re followed by Oklahoma State (16-13, 7-9), West Virginia (16-13, 5-11), Texas Tech (16-13, 5-10) and Oklahoma (14-15, 4-12) at 7, 8, 9 and 10.
Why does this matter if TCU is out of the regular season title race? Because seeds 7-10 must play an extra game in Kansas City.
As rugged as this conference is, it’s hard to see any team winning four straight games to win the conference tournament. Playing one less game increases the chances TCU has of earning a Big 12 championship and automatic bid.
So as you see, there’s still a ton to play for and let me add one more thing. Bracketology doesn’t take into account the human factor that comes with Selection Sunday. Of TCU’s 10 losses, Mike Miles Jr. was injured in six of them.
If TCU is able to knock off a Texas and perform admirably in the Big 12 tournament, who’s to say the committee won’t value a healthy TCU team a seed or two higher than the projections?
There’s so much at stake over the next week for the Horned Frogs and while it may be stressful to consider, this is what Jamie Dixon wanted for the program when he returned to his alma mater. Playing meaningful basketball in late February and early March is a sign that the standards of the program are continuing to rise.
This is the position the Horned Frogs wanted to be in during the preseason. Now the moment is almost here, what are they doing to do with it?
This story was originally published February 26, 2023 at 11:56 AM.
