Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU will win the national championship
Here we are. One final edition of Three Reasons Why for the 2022-23 season on a stage no one could have imagined when the season began more than four months ago.
Even the most optimistic projections for TCU had the Horned Frogs in a solid mid-tier bowl game. First year head coach Sonny Dykes has exceeded all expectations and will now be playing for a national championship against No. 1 Georgia.
Usually I list three reasons why TCU can win or lose a game, but this is the national title game edition and that calls for special format change.
Georgia is a near two-touchdown favorite, so they’re expected to win and I’m sure we all know more than three reasons why they could beat TCU.
So with that in mind, let’s go all in on how the Horned Frogs can become national champions.
Three reasons why TCU will be national champions
1. Max Duggan: You’re not beating the Bulldogs without an elite quarterback play and TCU certainly has that with the senior star. Duggan has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country at completing chunk plays in the passing game. He leads the nation with completions of at least 30 yards and was one of the leaders in touchdown passes of at least 20 yards.
Putting together repeated double-digit play drives against this type of defense isn’t sustainable. That’s why Duggan’s ability to connect on the deep ball will be key. So will his legs in the run game. This could easily be a game where Duggan has to throw for 250-plus yards and run for nearly 100. It’s his final game as a Horned Frog and we all know he won’t have a problem putting his body on the line to bring a title to Fort Worth.
TCU has the best quarterback in this game and when you have that, you always have a chance at coming out on top.
2. Underrated O-line: There’s been so much focus on Duggan and his arsenal of weapons in the lead up to the game, but not enough people are talking about how TCU’s offensive line gives them a shot against the Bulldogs. The Horned Frogs mauled Michigan all afternoon in the Fiesta Bowl and forced the Wolverines to start sending extra blitzers to try and penetrate the offense.
It didn’t help much. For all the talent Georgia has up front, the pass rush of the Bulldogs hasn’t been elite. In fact Georgia has the same amount of sacks as TCU and we know how the Horned Frogs have had their struggles with getting after the quarterback at times. Losing edge rusher Nolan Smith in November has impacted the unit.
That opens the door for the likes of Steve Avila and Alan Ali to create openings for Duggan and the run game. If TCU’s offensive line can match Georgia’s massive front, it’ll create another avenue for the Horned Frogs to pull off the upset.
3. 3-3-5: The spotlight has never been brighter on TCU’s unique style of defense than it has this week. The odd stack defense isn’t used by many teams and many teams haven’t played against it. It took Michigan a half to really figure out how to attack TCU’s defense and by that time, the Horned Frogs were already up two scores.
Ball security hadn’t been an issue for Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy all season until he saw TCU’s defense and threw two pick sixes. Georgia’s offense makes decision making easy for Stetson Bennett, but trying to find holes in TCU’s defense when they drop seven or eight players back in coverage could be an advantage for TCU.
Bennett must make accurate throws in tight windows against a defense he hasn’t seen before. Even if that lack of familiarity only impacts the start of the game, that could be enough for TCU to jump out to another lead like against Michigan.
Prediction
Duggan cements his status as a TCU legend with over 350 total yards and at least three touchdowns while Bennett will turn the ball over at least twice to swing the game.
TCU defeats Georgia 31-27 in the game of the year.
