Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU will roll or stumble vs. Iowa State
The final regular season edition of Three Reasons Why could be a historic one.
After pulling off a play for the ages with a game-winning field goal at Baylor, TCU has an opportunity to go 12-0 for the first time since 2010 if it takes care of business on Sasturday at home against Iowa State.
The Cyclones have had a tough season with a 4-7 record to show for it, but Iowa State also has one of the best defenses in the country. Iowa State has also had the edge in this series lately with three straight wins.
Here’s three reasons why TCU will snap the streak and make more history; or why Iowa State might finally be the team to play spoiler.
Three reasons why TCU will move to 12-0
1. TCU is clutch: Sonny Dykes said Iowa State could easily be 7-4,- 8-3 or 9-2 earlier in the week. The Cyclones are better than their record indicates, but there’s a reason they’ve only won four games. While Iowa State has found ways to lose in one-score games, TCU has thrived in those moments.
That experience gives the Horned Frogs the edge if this is a one-score game in the fourth quarter. One team will know what it needs to finish the game while the other is still trying to figure that out.
2. Error prone QB: Hunter Dekkers’ best football is ahead of him. The Iowa State quarterback has shown flashes and leads the conference in passing yards. But he’s also thrown the most interceptions by a good margin. Against a TCU secondary that has continued to pick off quarterbacks, that seems like a bad omen for the Cyclones.
TCU shoud be able to keep its turnover streak going with a timely interception or two.
3. Lack of a rushing attack: The Cyclones have one of the worst rushing attacks in the country, averaging barely over 100 yards which is just 119th in the country. Iowa State rushes for just 3.1 yards per carry and leading rusher Jirehl Brock hasn’t had a 100-yard game since early September.
Cartevious Norton has been getting more touches lately, but has yet to have four yards per carry in a game. With Iowa State being one-dimensional it opens the door for another strong performance by the TCU defense.
Three reasons why Iowa State upsets TCU
1. Elite defense: By just about all the metrics Iowa State has the top defense in the Big 12 and one of the best in the country. The Cyclones are just as good against the run as they are the pass. Only one opponent has been able to score 30 points this season and that was Baylor early in the year. TCU’s offense has been still been effective, but defenses are beginning to play them tougher.
The Horned Frogs have posted their three lowest scoring totals of the year in the last three games. Baylor and Texas held TCU under 30 points and we know how tough those games were. It could be difficult to reach against Iowa State.
2. Health: TCU pulled off its late game heroics against Baylor without Quentin Johnston, Kendre Miller and Derius Davis as they all either left the game early or didn’t play at all. It sounds like Miller and Davis will be good to go as they practiced Tuesday, but the staff is being more cautious with Quentin Johnston. Taye Barber’s status is another to watch.
Max Duggan needs as many as his weapons as he can get to figure out the defense. TCU has been able to mostly avoid the injury bug even though the team hasn’t had a bye week since Sept. 17. This will be the 10th straight game for the Horned Frogs. Could that finally be catching up to TCU?
3. Prolific receiver: If you believe Quentin Johnston is the best receiver in the Big 12 then Iowa State’s Xavier Hutchinson has to be right behind him. With over 100 catches and being the lone receiver with 1,000 yards in the league, Hutchinson is the definition of productive. He hasn’t been held under 70 yards all year.
The Cyclones will need Hutchinson to hit a few big plays in order to upset TCU. If the Horned Frogs can’t figure out a way to slow him down then Iowa State could have a chance in the fourth quarter.
This story was originally published November 25, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
