Steven Johnson: An early look at TCU’s next opponent, Iowa State
TCU has one more test it needs to pass to complete its perfect regular season.
The Horned Frogs (11-0, 8-0) will host Iowa State (4-7, 1-7) at 3 p.m. Saturday in what should be an emotional contest. It’s senior day and for those veterans that stuck around through the last few seasons, the moment should be extremely special.
Veteran leadership is among the many reasons TCU finds itself 11-0. The Horned Frogs will look to snap a three-game losing streak to the Cyclones and keep pace in the College Football Playoff race. The number of contenders has thinned out, especially after Tennessee was upset by South Carolina on Saturday.
The margin of error has grown a tad bit, but the Horned Frogs still should go into the game with mentality that a loss to a four-win Iowa State team would severely damage their CFP resume.
Here’s four things to know about Iowa State:
A new generation
2017-21 will be considered the golden era of Iowa State football as Matt Campbell led the program to five straight bowl games, including the Fiesta Bowl in 2020 after an appearance in the Big 12 championship game. The players that defined that era like Brock Purdy, Breece Hall and Charlie Kolar are all gone. Replacing them has been tough as expected.
Hunter Dekkers has taken over at quarterback for Purdy and his season has been a mixed bag. Dekkers leads the Big 12 in passing yards, but also has a league-high 13 interceptions to just 18 touchdowns. His completion percentage is also at the top of the league, but his quarterback rating of 58.0 is 65th in the country. There’s a feast or famine aspect to his game. Ten of his interceptions have come in Big 12 play.
One reason Dekkers has had to put up such numbers in the passing game is the lack of ground game. Jirehl Brock is the team’s leading rusher and he doesn’t have 500 yards. DeShawn Hanika replaced Kolar and has only managed 195 yards at the tight end spot. This isn’t the same Iowa State team that TCU has grown accustomed to seeing and the record reflects that.
Elite defense
While Campbell lost most of his offensive playmakers, he may have the best defense of his tenure. The Cyclones rank Top 10 in scoring defense and are holding opponents to under 17 points per game. Iowa State has allowed the fewest touchdowns in the Big 12 and has the No. 1 rushing and passing defense.
The Cyclones run a similar style defense to TCU, utilizing 3-3-5 concepts and like the Horned Frogs, Iowa State doesn’t get a ton of pressure on the quarterback as the team is last in the Big 12 in sacks. Still, this is an excellent unit and only allows teams to convert on third downs 29% of the time.
Names to know on defense include corner T.J. Tampa who is one of the highest graded cornerbacks in the Big 12 according to Pro Football Focus. Will McDonald is the team’s leading pass rusher with five sacks. Gerry Vaughn is the Cyclones’ leading tackler. Baylor was the only team to score 30 points on Iowa State this season.
Explosive receiver
One holdover from the glory days is talented receiver Xavier Hutchinson. Hutchinson leads the Big 12 with 1,160 yards and has six touchdowns. He’s far and away Dekkers’ favorite target with more than 100 catches on the season. That’s twice as much as the next receiver.
Hutchinson has had at least 100 yards in six of the last seven games and had 10 catches in four straight games. His lowest total of the season was 72 yards against Oklahoma. Simply put, the 6-foot-3 senior has put up numbers against every defense he’s faced. TCU has seen some good ones like Rashee Rice, Marvin Mims and Xavier Worthy, but Hutchinson is easily the most productive of the group.
Expect a close one
Iowa State has been the opposite of TCU in close games this year. Six of their seven losses this year have been by a touchdown or less including a 14-10 loss to Texas Tech on Saturday. During Campbell’s tenure it’s hard to find many double-digit losses.
Going back to 2019, in the regular season Iowa State has lost by more than a possession once per year and the Cyclones already had that type of loss this year when they fell 27-13 to Oklahoma. It could be another stressful afternoon for the Horned Frogs, but TCU should have all the confidence if the game is close while Iowa State has found ways to lose in those situations.
