Steven Johnson: Three reasons why No. 4 TCU will keep rolling or stumble at No. 18 Texas
This week’s edition of three reasons why is the biggest one yet.
It’s another week that a TCU game will be the site of a major network pregame show as ESPN College GameDay will be in Austin to see the Horned Frogs battle No. 18 Texas.
The Horned Frogs can lock up a spot in the Big 12 championship with a win and send a message to the rest of the country that they belong in the same tier as College Football Playoff contenders like Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and Tennessee.
Yes, TCU is ranked No. 4 in the latest CFP Top 25, but there’s an expectation that the ranking won’t last long as the Horned Frogs are a touchdown underdog to a more talented roster.
I haven’t even mentioned Gary Patterson yet, whose role on the Texas staff as a special advisor makes this game all the more compelling. What insight he can provide to Steve Sarkisian? Can the former players on the TCU roster take advantage of some of his tendencies on defense?
See what I mean? This is the Horned Frogs’ biggest game of the year and one that will play a big role in deciding their postseason fate.
Here’s three reasons why they could win or lose in the marquee game of the weekend:
Three reasons why TCU will win in Austin again
1. Quentin Johnston returns: The star receiver returned to practice Wednesday and signs point to him playing against the Longhorns. Johnston changes things tremendously for the Horned Frogs’ offense with his ability to generate big plays and how he’s able to be so effective with yards after the catch.
His return also should create more openings for Derius Davis and Taye Barber with the attention of the Texas secondary focused on him. He’s a NFL talent that was on a tear before an ankle injury kept him out of most of the Texas Tech victory. TCU needs him on the field to win.
2. Their own star running back: All eyes will be on Texas’ Bijan Robinson and for good reason, but it’s also an opportunity for Kendre Miller to make a name for himself in front of a primetime audience. Miller has already topped 1,000 yards and has scored a touchdown in every game this season and has rushed for more than 100 yards seven times.
Texas held up well against the Kansas State rushing attack last week, in part because they led 31-10 at the half, but if TCU is able to stay in the game early it’ll be because it’s established the run game. Miller must go over 100 yards for TCU to win and he’s done it against defenses that are comparable to the Longhorns. If Miller outduels Robinson then TCU’s chances skyrocket.
3. TCU’s a better second half team: The Horned Frogs are currently tied for fifth in the country in second-half scoring, averaging just under 20 per game. Texas is middle of the pack and finishing games has been something the Longhorns have struggled with so far under Steve Sarkisian.
Texas only scored three second-half points in the win last week against Kansas State and needed a last second stand to avoid another collapse. Texas also only scored three points in the second half in a loss to Oklahoma State and 10 in a defeat against Texas Tech after producing 24 in the first half. If it’s a close game, then TCU has shown it can finish better than Texas.
Three reasons why TCU falls to Texas
1. Bijan Robinson: The Horned Frogs run defense has been much improved after allowing more than 200 yards a game in 2021. TCU held up well against Kansas State star Deuce Vaughn and has done a pretty gob job of limiting the impact of running backs this season. But Robinson is the best of the bunch and coming off his second 200-yard game of his career.
The first? Against TCU last year in the 32-27 Texas win. Robinson will be the ultimate test to see how far the run defense has come. Robinson has gone over 100 yards in seven straight games and at least 130 in four straight. If TCU can’t hold him under this number, Texas could have the edge.
2. Explosive receiving group: Southlake Carroll star Quinn Ewers has a loaded group of receivers led by Xavier Worthy and JaTavion Sanders. The TCU pass defense has been a mixed bag allowing 20 touchdowns and almost 240 yards per game. The secondary has been able to offset that a bit by forcing 10 interceptions, but in terms of raw throwing talent Ewers and his receivers will be the best group TCU has faced this year.
Ewers hasn’t been great since returning from a shoulder injury, but he has a tremendously high ceiling. The Horned Frogs can’t allow him to attack them over the top or it won’t matter what type of success the defense has against Robinson.
3. Slow start dooms TCU: While Texas Tech didn’t require dramatic comebacks like Oklahoma State and Kansas State the trend of sluggish starts and needing to rally in the second half is still worrisome. Against a Texas team that can start fast, that tendency could be fatal regardless of how Texas may struggle in the second half.
Steve Sarkisian is a great offensive mind and usually comes out dealing with creative plays on the Longhorns’ opening possessions. Can TCU keep it close in the first half or will they fall behind for yet another week? If Texas utilizes its firepower correctly then even the Horned Frogs offense might not have enough to come back.
This story was originally published November 11, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
