Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU rolls or stumbles in the Battle for the Saddle Trophy
It’s time for the Battle for the Saddle Trophy edition of Three Reasons Why. We could also call it the Big Noon Kickoff edition with Fox’s pregame show in town.
The No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs will be on center stage at 11 a.m. Saturday as they look to improve to 9-0 against a gritty Texas Tech team under first year coach Joey McGuire.
The stakes are simple for both teams. A win by the Horned Frogs inches them one step closer to locking up a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game and keeps them in the College Football Playoff discussion.
Tech is hoping to snap a losing streak to TCU and also fight for bowl eligibility.
Here are three keys to the game for both teams:
Three reasons why TCU moves to 9-0
1. The O-line: Tech beat writers say the defense has been a solid surprise with the way they’ve played most of the season. It starts with prolific edge rusher Tyree Wilson who leads the team with 6.5 sacks. But this should be a bad matchup for the Red Raiders as TCU arguably has the best offensive line in the Big 12.
TCU is the only offense in the country that averages 300 yards passing and 200 yards rushing. It’s a testament to the skill guys at TCU, but also the offensive line. Steve Avila and the crew will control the line of scrimmage and lead TCU to another productive day on offense.
2. Creating turnovers: The Horned Frogs have forced a turnover in seven straight games and it’s been one of the strengths of the defense. Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson’s forced fumble changed the tide of the West Virginia game. The Red Raiders are averaging almost 2.5 turnovers per game.
That’s potentially two or three extra possession for TCU’s offense which doesn’t need much help to put up points. As it has all season, the defense will force a key turnover or two to pull away from Tech.
3. Road woes: Texas Tech has gone on the road three times this year and has lost each time by two scores. There’s no shame in losing to Top 25 teams like NC State, Kansas State or Oklahoma State on the road, but it shows the Red Raiders aren’t the same team away from Lubbock.
In fact that’s where most of the turnover struggles have come as Tech has turned it over nine times in three road games. It’s hard to see the Red Raiders shaking off their road struggles in the face of a good crowd at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Three reasons why Tech will knock off TCU
1. No halftime adjustments this time: The saving grace for TCU on defense has been how the unit has been able to lock in at the half after shaky starts. The Horned Frogs have been much better in the second half defensively than the first, but what happens if the Red Raiders start fast and keep their foot on the pedal?
Similar to West Virginia, the Tech offense is capable of putting up points in a hurry and head coach Sonny Dykes said earlier this week TCU would be playing with fire if the team lets Texas Tech get rolling.
2. Tech plays a clean game: The Red Raiders have only had two games this year when they haven’t turned the ball over and it just happened to be their two best games of the year. The wins over Texas and the blowout over West Virginia showed what this team is capable of doing when it doesn’t shoot itself in the foot.
Tech gained almost 600 yards of offense against the Mountaineers and outdueled Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns. If TCU can’t force turnovers, will the defense be able to get off the field against the quick passing attack led by Behren Morton?
3. Pass rush struggles strike again: The Texas Tech offensive line is the worst group in the Big 12. The Red Raiders have allowed 30 sacks and the next closet team has only allowed 17. When you’re constantly getting pressured in the pocket it leads to the quarterback making mistakes. But can TCU take advantage of that?
The Horned Frogs are only tied for eighth in the conference in sacks with just 15, the same number as West Virginia. Whether it’s Dylan Horton building off his two sack performance last week or TCU using its linebackers to create pressure, if Morton isn’t bothered in the pocket then this game will be closer than anticipated.
