Steven Johnson: TCU has championship level offense, but what about the defense?
TCU’s magical season continued to roll on Saturday as the Horned Frogs captured a rare win in Morgantown with a 41-31 win over West Virginia.
The game was not without its stumbles on both sides of the ball, but a W is a W. The more pressing question is sorting out where the Horned Frogs stand with the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings slated for Tuesday.
It’s clear that TCU has a championship-caliber offense that has talent in all three phases. Max Duggan had another 300-yard, three touchdown performance.
Quentin Johnston caught a touchdown pass for the fourth straight game and Kendre Miller produced his fifth 100-yard game in six outings on just eight carries.
But what about the defense? Is it championship or playoff caliber?
The answer is a bit complicated.
The Horned Frogs entered Saturday as the nation’s No. 70 scoring defense and that ranking might drop a few notches after allowing 31 points to the Mountaineers. Head coach Sonny Dykes acknowledged that there must be improvement.
“We didn’t have that edge defensively today. I didn’t feel like it, we made enough plays to win the game, but we’ve got to play better, play more physical,” Dykes said. “We’ve got to get off blocks better; I felt like today we got stuck at times on block. To me those things come down to effort and technique.”
It’s the most vocal criticism Dykes has had of the defense so far this season and it’s not a coincidence the timing. There are real expectations now that this could be a championship season. But can TCU get there with the way the defense has performed overall?
It’s important to note that based off last year, the Horned Frogs defense has improved. TCU allowed 35 points per game last year, that number has dropped a touchdown under Joe Gillespie.
Opponents averaged 227 yards on the ground in 2021, through seven games that number dropped to 138.4. The Horned Frogs are allowing a few more yards through the air, but opposing quarterback completion percentage has dropped from 64% to 53.5% through seven games and JT Daniels was held under 60% on Saturday.
TCU has already matched its sack total from last year. As the numbers show, the unit has improved overall, but have we seen their ceiling?
Is the defense destined to give up big plays and points, but offset it with timely turnovers and stops in the second half? If so, is that enough to really compete for a championship?
The Horned Frogs can win the Big 12 and are the favorites after Kansas State obliterated Oklahoma State on Saturday.
But what about the College Football Playoff? Is the defense really good enough for the Horned Frogs to compete for a national championship?
A look at some current playoff contenders and past participants actually show that the answer to that question is yes.
Look no further than Tennessee, which will surely be in the CFP committee’s initial top four. The Vols have the worst pass defense in the country and are marginally better at keeping opponents off the scoreboard. Both defenses are allowing roughly 400 yards of offense per game (although on Saturday the Vols limited Kentucky to just 98 passing yards and 205 total yards).
The Horned Frogs are allowing more than five yards per play. So was Tennessee until Saturday’s 44-6 romp of Kentucky. If the Vols beat Georgia it’s almost a given they’ll make the final playoff field if they win out.
If they can do it why can’t TCU? You can expand the data and find more examples. None bigger than the 2019 LSU squad that won it all. In the regular season the Tigers’ defense was bad and allowed 28 points or more five times. Vanderbilt scored 38 on LSU; that says it all. The Tigers buckled down in the SEC Championship Game and their two playoff games as their numbers ended up being pretty respectable, maybe TCU can do that, too.
The 2020 runner-up Ohio State team allowed more than 300 yards passing and regularly disappointed Buckeyes fans. 2014 Florida State allowed just under 400 yards per game and couldn’t stop the run. I don’t need to mention the Lincoln Riley-led Oklahoma teams for further proof.
So to answer the question: Yes, TCU can finish the season undefeated and enter the playoffs for the first time even if the defense stays at the same level. But it sure would be easier if the defense can find just one more level to ascend to.
The return of nickel safety Millard Bradford will certainly help.
“You can tell we’re a little bit banged up in some spots, we’ve got to get our guys back healthy and playing like we were before in terms of our effort and playing with a physical effort,” Dykes said.
The effort part was crucial, the defense doesn’t have the depth or margin of error like the offense. The Horned Frogs basically stumbled into 41 points on what they probably consider a B or C type game.
The defense has to bring it every single snap, every single drive in order for TCU to reach its newfound goals. The defense has shown flashes, particularly in the second half of the last three games, but more is needed in order for the run to continue.
“We’re going to have to play better defense and our guys know that,” Dykes said.
