Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU will roll or stumble at West Virginia
We’re past the halfway point of the season and approaching the stretch run that’ll determine where TCU lands in the postseason.
That final run starts in Morgantown, W.Va., where Milan Piskar Stadium has been a house of horrors historically for the Horned Frogs.
There’s not a lot of hype around this game like the previous four TCU games that featured Top 25 opposing teams. It’s hard to call this a trap game as TCU understands its poor history at West Virginia. Lack of motivation shouldn’t be a problem as the Horned Frogs look to end another losing streak to a conference opponent.
Here are three reasons why TCU will get it done or suffer another loss in Morgantown:
Three reasons why TCU moves to 8-0
1. A bad WVU defense: TCU has one of the most explosive offenses in the country as the Horned Frogs are ranked third overall in scoring offense, total offense and yards per play. West Virginia is on the opposite spectrum with the Mountaineers being tied for 117th in scoring defense and 95th in total defense.
West Virginia allowed 48 points to Texas Tech and 55 points to Kansas. The Jayhawks did that on the road. There’s no reason to think TCU won’t light up that defense and continue it’s roll. The Horned Frogs should be able to score around 40 points if they execute.
2. Opportunistic defense: The Horned Frogs defense isn’t great. But the unit has produced enough plays each week to complement the offense. That likely will need to be the case again as JT Daniels is leading an offense that scores almost 35 points per game.
The Mountaineers will probably put up a fair share of their own points, but the Horned Frogs’ secondary will produce a game-turning interception or two as it’s done the last few weeks. Daniels’ lack of mobility could also help for a better performance from the defense. Without worrying about the quarterback-run game, the defense should be more aggressive. Daniels has four turnovers in his last two games.
3. Overpowering O-Line: You know what helps make playing on the road easier? When your offensive line controls the line of scrimmage and takes the crowd out of the game. After facing so many defensive lines that had an array of pass rushers, the TCU offensive line will face a unit that hasn’t shown the same effectiveness of an Oklahoma State or Kansas State.
Dante Stills is a legit edge rusher and has been solid against the run, but overall this is a unit TCU should dominate. That means more time for Max Duggan and more room for Kendre Miller. The Mountaineers have allowed two teams to go over 200 yards rushing and both resulted in losses. Don’t be surprised if TCU is the third.
Three reasons why TCU drops a fourth straight in Morgantown
1. Another slow start: If there’s one criticism of the offense it’s how often the unit has started slow. Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Kansas all saw the TCU offensie need roughly a half to get revved up. On the flip side, the same could be said for the defense. It seems like the Horned Frogs must rely on second-half adjustments.
Falling behind against West Virginia in a three-score hole will be difficult to overcome. It’s one thing to do it at Amon G. Carter Stadium where you have your fans hyping you up after any small play. It’s another to be on the opposite end of that. The Mountaineers have already knocked off Baylor at home. TCU can’t afford to fall behind early again, sooner or later it’s going to catch up to them.
2. Daniels thrives: The matchup with the West Virginia quarterback is interesting. Dnieils’ lack of mobility takes something off the defense’s plate. On the other, quarterbacks that can make precise throws have been the ultimate challenge for the TCU secondary.
The West Virginia offensive line has done a good job of protecting Daniels. If TCU can’t find ways to pressure him then he has the talent to carve up the defense. Remember this was a former five-star recruit and he has plenty of experience and weapons. Daniels has thrown for 300 yards just once this year. Can the Horned Frogs make sure that number remains the same?
3. WVU takes away the run game: TCU’s offensive line should have the edge, but the one thing West Virginia has been solid at is stopping the run. It hasn’t happened against every opponent as stated above, but the Mountaineers held Bijan Robinson and Texas to just over 100 yards rushing on the road. Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech failed to reach 100.
Kansas was the only team to hold TCU under 150 yards rushing and we know how tough that game was for TCU to pull out. If’s been feast or famine with the West Virginia front seven against the run. If it’s the same front that slowed down Robinson and Texas that the Horned Frogs face then it could be tough sledding.
