Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU will beat or fall to No. 17 Kansas State
It’s time for the homecoming edition of three reasons why.
It’s a big weekend for TCU with alumni returning to town: Schollmaier Live on Friday to kickoff basketball season and, of course, the Horned Frogs’ Big 12 football matchup against No. 17 Kansas State.
It’s the fourth-straight ranked opponent for TCU and a chance to sit alone at the top of the Big 12 standings.
Like last week’s double-overtime 43-40 win against Oklahoma State, this one expects to be close. Can TCU snap its three game losing streak to K-State or will the Wildcats be the first defense to slow down the Horned Frogs’ flying offense?
Here’s three reasons why TCU will prevail or fall short against Kansas State:
Three reasons why TCU moves to 7-0
1. Martinez regresses: The Wildcats quarterback has found a resurgence in Manhattan by being a dynamic runner and avoiding the crucial mistakes that plagued him with Nebraska. Martinez has thrown zero interceptions so far and has double-digit carries in every game this year.
Making him a non-factor would be essential in shutting down the Kansas State offense. If TCU is able to jump out to a lead, it will force Martinez to rely more on his arm to keep the Wildcats in the game. He hasn’t been asked to do that all season and it would be tough to do it against TCU. The defense has forced a turnover in five straight games. Can it make it six?
2. Talent gap: TCU has the edge in talent. It’s not everything, but it’s something. As well as Kansas State has played through the first half of the season, this is a team that was still pushed around by Tulane. The Wildcats scored 10 points in the loss to the Green Wave and 10 points in a one-point win against Iowa State.
The Wildcats have maximized their talent, but you could make the same argument for TCU. In 247Sports’ Team Talent Rankings the Horned Frogs are slotted at No. 32 while Kansas State is No. 70. From Quentin Johnston to Kendre Miller or Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, TCU will just have more difference makers in the end to pull away.
3. Max Duggan: Kansas State has had Duggan’s number in their three meetings when Duggan failed to throw for 200 yards in a game. With a new offensive scheme that he’s called quarterback-friendly multiples, there’s a good chance Duggan will play well against the Wildcats.
Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel and Texas Tech’s Donovan Smith threw for at least 330 yards. If Duggan is able to get close to that level of production it’s hard seeing TCU falling.
Why K-State could win a fourth straight vs. TCU
1. K-State’s dynamic duo: The TCU run defense has been much improved over last year’s unit that allowed 222 yards per game. That averaged has dropped almost 100 yards as TCU sits just outside the Top 50 nationally. But the Horned Frogs haven’t faced an offense that will be as committed to running the ball as the Wildcats.
With Martinez and Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State will feed both in the run game. Both are also capable of explosive runs from anywhere on the field. If the duo is able to get around 100 yards each, that’s a scenario where TCU’s offense spends too much time on the sidelines. It also keeps Martinez from having to drop back and beat you. The Horned Frogs must contain two rushers who are in the league’s top five.
2. King Felix: K-State edge Felix Anudike-Uzomah has been the best player on one of the best defenses in the country. Anudike-Uzomah told reporters earlier this week that he can only remember one or two plays this season when he wasn’t facing some kind of double team. They haven’t been too effective as he has 6.5 sacks on the year.
How does TCU handle him up front? Will they double-team or chip him or trust their tackles to go one-on-one. The Horned Frogs have handled themselves well up front, but Anudike-Uzomah could be the type of talent that finds a way to make a difference on the game. If Kansas State is going to slow down TCU’s offense, it’s going to start with the pass rush led by Anudike-Uzomah.
3. Ball hawking secondary: The Wildcats secondary is solid. The few times they have given up yards, they’ve normally have offset it by forcing a turnover or two. Kansas State picked off Donovan Smith twice in their 37-28 win. As a unit the Wildcats defense is forcing almost two turnovers a game.
Opposing quarterbacks are completing less than 60% of their throws. While the Wildcats may not have that single shutdown corner that can take away a Quinton Johnston, it does a tight knit grip that can capitalize off one mistake. TCU has done a great job of avoiding those all season, but Kansas State’s defense will be designed to force them out of their comfort zone.
This story was originally published October 21, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
