Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU will prevail or stumble vs. Oklahoma State
TCU finds itself in a game of national relevance with No. 8 Oklahoma State coming to Amon G. Carter Stadium Saturday.
We’ve talked about high stakes before but those situations pale in comparison to what can be achieved with a win over the Cowboys (5-0, 2-0). We’re not talking about bragging rights over a local rival or just keeping afloat in a conference race.
A victory over Oklahoma State serves as a signal that TCU is viable contender for the College Football Playoff. Think about it, on paper it would arguably be the best win by any Top 25 team in the country.
It’s a game that could go either way. The Cowboys are ranked higher and expected to be in this position, but TCU is favored.
Here are three reasons why TCU could capture a season-altering win or fall against another Big 12 contender.
Three reasons why TCU will beat Oklahoma State
1. The Sanders of old returns: Spencer Sanders is playing the best football of his career and a big reason why is that he’s cut down on the turnovers. With 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions, the OSU quarterback is operating an offense that is averaging the same exact amount of points as TCU at 46.4.
Defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 defense has had success against Sanders in the past and he has better personnel with the Horned Frogs. Sanders will get his yards, but TCU will force a turnover or two. Sanders averaged 10 interceptions per season his first three seasons as a starter.
2. OSU secondary: This is not the same secondary that TCU and other offenses faced last year. The Cowboys lost a significant portion of their roster to bigger programs via the transfer portal or to the NFL and other leagues. As a result Oklahoma State is allowing more than 300 yards per game through the air.
Max Duggan will continue his torrid start and have another big day passing. It was Quentin Johnston’s turn to shine last week, the two will continue to build on the chemistry they established during his record-setting day against Kansas.
3. TCU outruns the Cowboys: Oklahoma State’s run defense has remained solid allowing under 120 yards per game, but now the unit faces one of the best in the country. The Horned Frogs rushing attack is just outside the Top 10 nationally and Kendre Miller will be able to find success where other backs have struggled.
On the flip side Oklahoma State’s rushing offense has left something to be desired. If TCU’s front seven can avoid allowing Cowboy running back Dominic Richardson to get going then a one-dimensional Cowboys offense could be more prone to mistakes.
Three reasons why TCU will stumble vs. Oklahoma State
1. The pass defense struggles again: Kansas backup quarterback Jason Bean had his way in the second half against TCU, going blow for blow with Duggan until the very end. It was a combination of the Jayhawks using cleverness on offense and Bean completing some top-level passes in the fourth quarter. That has to be avoided against Sanders, who has plenty of weapons of his own at receiver.
Sanders already has two games with at least 297 yards. That type of performance will be tough for TCU to overcome.
2. OSU’s pass rush: TCU has handled itself against the last two teams that occupied the top spot in the Big 12 for sacks. Duggan was only sacked once against Kansas and Oklahoma, but the Cowboys’ defensive line is poised to be TCU’s toughest test. The depth and experience up front makes Oklahoma State’s defensive line one of the best in the league.
TCU allowed five sacks against SMU and still prevailed. That scenario seems unlikely if it happens against the Cowboys.
3. Not sustaining drives: It’s another battle of strength on strength as TCU is converting on third down almost 50% of the time while Oklahoma State is only allowing conversions to opponent 28% of the time. The Horned Frogs went an extended stretch against Kansas in the first half where the offense couldn’t keep drives going after scoring a field goal on the team’s first possession.
The defense was able to hold the line until the offense founds its rhythm. TCU may not have the luxury of being able to find itself against an equally explosive offense.
This story was originally published October 14, 2022 at 4:00 AM.
