Steven Johnson: Why No. 17 TCU could beat or stumble against No. 19 Kansas
Welcome back to another edition of three reasons why.
We’ve already had the Iron Skillet and ranked week, but this time it’s the College GameDay edition.
No. 17 TCU and No. 19 Kansas will host the popular ESPN pregame show in Lawrence just before the 11 a.m. kickoff on FS1.
It’s the first time GameDay has been on KU’s campus and should be an electric atmosphere. These two teams were picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12, but have emerged as two of the conference’s best so far.
Both are undefeated and whoever wins will have a case as one of the leading contenders in the conference along with Oklahoma State.
Here are three reasons why TCU could move to 5-0 or suffer its first setback.
Why TCU will keep rolling at Kansas
1. The Jayhawks secondary: Kansas has allowed the most passing yards in the Big 12 and is allowing quarterbacks to complete almost 66% of their attempts. The Jayhawks have had leads in games, but that still doesn’t explain how quarterbacks have been able to feast on that secondary. With the way Max Duggan is playing, he seems like the worst type of quarterback for Kansas to deal with.
Mobile, a good decison maker and he’s shown the ability to hit passes down the field. With how he’s playing and the talent at receiver, Duggan could have another 300 yard day.
2. Kendre Miller/Emari Demercado: The two running backs have quietly, at least on a national scale, become one of the best one-two punches around. Both players are averaging better than seven yards per carry and have combined for nine touchdowns. As much as we talk about the Kansas rushing attack, TCU’s is even better at 252 yards per game.
The Jayhawks have held up well against the run, allowing just over three yards per carry. But Iowa State, Houston, Duke and West Virginia don’t have to same ground game the Horned Frogs do. TCU will be able to match Kansas’ production in the run game and then some.
3. TCU’s secondary: After having faced Rashee Rice and Marvin Mims in back-to-back weeks, the challenge will be much easier for the likes of Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton. We know how good Jalon Daniels is, but what about his receivers? There’s only one that has more 200 receiving yards in five games.
With no one to lose sleep over, expect an aggressive secondary in run support and in throwing lanes. TCU has given up a few big plays to SMU and OU, but has performed solid overall. Kansas’ passing attack isn’t as dangerous and the secondary including the likes of Mark Perry and Bud Clark will make plays.
Why TCU might fall at Kansas
1. Jalon Daniels: The Frogs have faced some pretty good quarterbacks in Tanner Mordecai and Dillon Gabriel, but Daniels will be a different test. While Gabriel and Mordecai can move, they’re more improvisers than out right scramblers like Daniels. When he has the ball in his hands, he’s as lethal as a running back and leads Kansas in rushing as a result.
You also have to wonder if he’s able to buy time with his legs to allow more room for his receivers. Even if you drop back eight in coverage you can’t defend all that grass forever. Daniels is in the early running for the Heisman, if he plays like a candidate then the Jayhawks have a chance.
2. Opportunistic defense: TCU has turned the ball over just one time. It feels like regression is due at some point right? Kansas is hoping that it will be against them. The Jayhawks have forced seven turnovers including four interceptions. If you don’t have the firepower to keep up with an opposing offense then you need to steal a possession or two to make up for it.
If Kansas is finally able to force the TCU offense into critical mistakes, it’ll help them match the Horned Frogs.
3. Red zone situations: Kansas has the best red zone defense and the second best red zone offense in the conference. In 21 red zone scenarios, the Jayhawks have allowed just nine touchdowns and scores on 75% of the time. TCU has allowed eight touchdowns in 11 situations and scores 90% of the time by comparison. Offensively Kansas scores 92% of the time once it gets inside the 20 and has scored 22 touchdowns out of 26 trips.
Kansas will give up field goals all day knowing it has a great probability of getting seven when it’s their turn. The goal for Kansas will be bend, don’t break and if the Jayhawks are successful it could be just enough to survive TCU.
