Steven Johnson: Three reasons why TCU could win or lose the Battle for the Iron Skillet
After a temporary hiatus for the Tarleton game, three reasons why is back and it’s the Battle for the Iron Skillet edition.
The off-the-field storylines have intensified this metroplex rivalry, but what makes this game so fascinating on the field is that there are some unknowns for TCU that will be revealed quickly on Saturday morning.
While most teams across the country have played at least one opponent that has challenged them, or at the very least was supposed to, TCU’s first litmus test comes a tad bit later in the season.
The fact that it comes against their crosstown rival, only increases the stakes.
Three reasons why TCU will win the Iron Skillet
1. The running game: After watching SMU’s defeat to Maryland and talking to the media that cover the Mustangs, the Terps were able to expose a weakness in the Mustangs defense. Maryland wore down SMU and rushed for more than 200 yards to put SMU away. The TCU offensive line, which also includes SMU transfer Alan Ali, is viewed as one of the Horned Frogs’ strengths.
The Mustangs have talent in their front seven with Elijah Chatman and Jimmy Phillips Jr, but Steve Avila, Ali and Brandon Coleman have been impressive as well. Strength up front gives TCU a chance to pull away in the fourth quarter.
2. Quentin Johnston: TCU has plenty of depth at wide receiver. Derius Davis leads the team with three touchdowns while three other players have caught touchdowns. Johnston isn’t among them, but that must change on Saturday as the competition ramps up. The offense is going to be more focused on getting Johnston the ball early and often.
Johnston will make the most of those opportunities and have his breakout performance of the year.
3. Winning the turnover battle: TCU won this battle last year, but lost the war overall. I don’t think that will happen again with the new offensive scheme. SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai is productive and fearless. But it can also get him in trouble and give the Horned Frogs opportunities to produce turnovers. Meanwhile TCU has been excellent in ball security with just one turnover in two games.
The TCU defense will force a mistake or two and steal an extra possession for the offense which could end up being the difference.
Why TCU will drop its third straight to SMU
1. No answer for Rice: The worst case scenario for TCU is for Rashee Rice to add onto his monster season with another big performance. With nearly 500 yards in three games, Rice is on pace for more than 1,900 yards in 12 games. Not only is Rice a big-play threat, he’s been superb at winning contested catches to move the chains. If TCU is unable to keep him under 150 yards, it could be tough to keep up with the Mustangs.
2. Pass rush: Among the things that will quickly be revealed Saturday is the quality of TCU’s pass rush. The Horned Frogs will working a lot out of a three-man front. Will they be able to pressure Mordecai with their down linemen or will defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie be forced to rely on the blitz? The latter could create more openings for an experienced quarterback to dissect the defense.
The last thing TCU wants to do is give Mordecai time to find Rice or any of the other receivers for big gains.
3. Passing game questions flare up: After only throwing for 138 yards against Colorado, there were legitimate concerns about why the TCU passing game seemed so out of sorts. Chandler Morris’ knee injury also played a role. The Horned Frogs bounced back with 450 passing yards against Tarleton to ease concerns, for now.
But what if the same issues return? The wrong routes being run, poor decisions on attempted throws and not connecting on the easy ones? It was the reason the offense struggled for a half against a bad Colorado team. A bad half, or even a quarter, against this SMU team could find the Horned Frogs down multiple possessions.
We think and expect that Dykes and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s passing game will be effective, but it still needs to be proven.
Prediction
I’ve gone back and forth on this and would feel more comfortable if TCU had faced more stiff competition. Nonetheless, I believe TCU is deeper at the skill positions, Max Duggan can match Mordecai’s numbers and the defense will make just enough plays for a narrow TCU win.
TCU snaps its two-game skid to SMU with a 38-34 win.
