How TCU basketball can pull off an upset of 1-seed Arizona on Sunday
Three.
That’s how many teams have been able to knock off Arizona this season. The Wildcats earned the 1-seed in the South Region by sweeping the Pac-12 regular-season and tournament titles.
Then they overwhelmed 16-seed Wright State with an 87-70 victory in the first-round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday night at Viejas Arena.
First-year coach Tommy Lloyd has the Arizona faithful believing the Wildcats can return to the Final Four for the first time since 2001 and win it all like they did in 1997.
But TCU hopes to derail those plans at 8:40 p.m. Sunday. The Frogs won their first NCAA Tournament game in 35 years by knocking off 8-seed Seton Hall, 69-42, and will be looking to reach the Sweet 16.
A 9-seed has defeated the 1-seed in the second round only six times since 1985. Odds say that an 8- or 9-seed reaches the Sweet 16 about every other year. Well, 8-seed Loyola Chicago defeated 1-seed Illinois in last year’s tournament. In 2019, all 1-seeds reached the Sweet 16.
So odds aren’t in TCU’s favor but the program has a 2-0 all-time record against Arizona. The schools played in what was called the All-College Tournament in Oklahoma City during the 1939-40 season, which the Frogs won, 37-32, on Dec. 29, 1939. Then TCU had a 63-48 victory over Arizona in Dallas on Dec. 30, 1952.
TCU coach Jamie Dixon has never faced Arizona in his time as a head coach.
Still, if TCU is going to pull off the upset, it’ll have to follow the same formula that it did in knocking off top-10 teams such as Kansas and Texas Tech.
Three keys for a TCU victory
1. Turnover margin. The Frogs have been turnover-prone throughout the season, which is why some feel they won’t make a deep run in this tournament. At some point, turnovers will catch up with TCU.
But the Frogs have shown they can take care of the ball such as turning it over only seven times in a victory over Kansas on March 1. They turned it over 13 times in a victory over Texas Tech on Feb. 26, but forced 20 turnovers that night.
Taking care of the ball and forcing turnovers rank among the top priorities for TCU. In its three losses, Arizona has turned it over 16 times versus Colorado, 14 times versus UCLA and 17 times versus Tennessee.
2. Who steps up? Mike Miles will need to have one of his best games for the Frogs to knock off the Wildcats. He’s capable of scoring in bunches and taking over a game.
In this case, though, he’ll need help from others. Can Chuck O’Bannon Jr. get hot from 3-point range? Can Micah Peavy find ways to get some penetration and get to the rim? How about Damion Baugh putting together another no turnover night like he did in the Kansas victory?
Tennessee, for instance, had John Fulkerson step up and score a season-high 24 points in its victory over Arizona.
It’ll take a collective effort for the Frogs to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16.
3. Relentless D. Arizona is one of the best offenses in the country, entering the tournament with the third-best scoring offense at 84.6 points per game. The Wildcats make close to 50% of their shots from the field.
TCU has to find ways to get Arizona out of its rhythm. That’s what the three teams that knocked off the Wildcats were able to do.
Arizona shot just 39% in a loss to Colorado, for instance. TCU prides itself on playing an elite-level of defense and it has to do so if it wants to extend its March Madness stay.
