TCU basketball is entering its pivotal stretch with seven games over the final 14 days of the regular season that will impact its postseason dreams significantly.

If the Horned Frogs can get through this stretch one game over .500 (4-3), they’re essentially locks for March Madness going into next month’s Big 12 tournament. Anything short of that puts them on the dreaded “bubble,” although a 3-4 finish may be enough to get in the Big Dance without too much sweat.

But finding those wins is easier said than done with No. 7 Baylor up next. TCU lost to then-No. 1 Baylor in its Big 12 opener on Jan. 8 at Schollmaier Arena, but the Frogs flashed some potential that night. They were leading at halftime but a wrist injury to Mike Miles early in the second half derailed an upset bid.

With that being said, here’s everything else you need to know going into the game:

The Details

When/where: 11 a.m. Saturday at Ferrell Center, Waco

TV/radio: ESPN2 (Chuckie Kempf, Tim Welsh); KLIF (570 AM) with Brian Estridge and John Denton

Records: TCU 16-7, 5-6 Big 12; Baylor 21-5, 9-4 Big 12

About TCU: TCU’s last win over Baylor in Waco came on Jan. 2, 2018, an 81-78 overtime victory. ... The Frogs have never defeated a top-10 team on the road. The program’s biggest road win happened earlier this season when they knocked off then-No. 15 Iowa State in Ames. ... TCU has the fifth-toughest schedule remaining in the country. ... Mike Miles is averaging a team-best 14.8 points this season, but was held to just three points in TCU’s loss to Iowa State on Tuesday. ... The Frogs are shooting just 29.9% from 3-point range this season.

About Baylor: Baylor is 12-2 at home this season. ... The Bears lead the all-time series against the Frogs 102-85. ... The Bears outscored the Frogs 45-27 in the second half to overcome a nine-point deficit in the first meeting this season. ... Baylor is coming off an 83-73 loss to Texas Tech in Lubbock on Wednesday. ... Baylor guards James Akinjo (13.3 points) and Adam Flagler (13 points) rank among the top-10 scorers in the Big 12. Akinjo is leading the league in free-throw percentage (83.3%) and assists per game at 5.71. ... Baylor leads the Big 12 in scoring margin, outscoring its opponents by an average of 14.65 points per game.

Projected lineups

TCU: Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, Chuck O’Bannon Jr., Emanuel Miller, Eddie Lampkin Jr.

Baylor: James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, Kendall Brown, Matthew Mayer, Flo Thamba

Prediction

TCU is going to have to steal a road victory if it wants to lock itself into March Madness. Or the Frogs could begin to spiral toward being a NIT team. This doesn’t feel like the game TCU gets it turned around, especially with Baylor coming off a loss at Texas Tech. Instead, the Frogs’ best chance for a ranked road win may be at Texas next Wednesday. The Bears won’t let this one get away. Baylor 74, TCU 63.

This story was originally published February 18, 2022 at 6:00 AM.

Drew Davison

Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Drew Davison was a TCU and Big 12 sports writer for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram until 2022. He covered everything in DFW from Rangers to Cowboys to motor sports.