TCU went 1-6 in one-score games last season. How the Frogs will turn the corner in 2020?
TCU went 1-6 in one-score games in 2019, missing bowl eligibility for just the third time in Gary Patterson’s tenure.
If the Horned Frogs could have flipped a few of those games, most would have viewed a 7- or 8-win season with a bowl appearance as a successful year behind true freshman quarterback Max Duggan. That didn’t happen, though, and Patterson spent part of the offseason retooling the staff.
Patterson brought in his longtime friend Jerry Kill as a special assistant, dubbing Kill the de facto “offensive head coach.” TCU also welcomed back Doug Meacham, who will take over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie, and hired Bryan Applewhite as running backs coach.
The hope is the offense sees much-needed improvement, although it faces an unforeseen uphill battle. Duggan, the projected starting quarterback, is sidelined indefinitely with a heart condition, leaving the QB job to former walk-on Matthew Downing.
Regardless of who is in or out (and there should be plenty of flexibility this season given the coronavirus pandemic can sideline a player at any given moment), TCU has to find a way to get it done in close games. Here’s three areas where the Horned Frogs must improve:
Red-zone offense and defense
An amateur analyst may feel the red zone is a telling statistic when it comes to one-score games. After all, it’s the area where most teams score or prevent scores.
Last season, TCU’s offense had 53 trips to the red zone and converted that into 29 touchdowns and 21 field goals. That TD total must improve. Texas, for instance, scored 10 more TDs in the red zone (39) despite making three less trips than TCU. K-State and Iowa State also finished with more TDs with a similar number of trips.
Defensively, TCU allowed 25 touchdowns in 40 trips to the red zone.
Asked if he’d seen improvements in the red-zone offense and defense this training camp, Patterson said: “Let’s hope so. You won’t win more ball games if you don’t.”
Turnover margin
It’s no secret that turnover margin continuously ranks as one of the top dictators between wins and losses. And it should come as no surprise that TCU finished just under .500 last season when you see it break even on turnover margin (20 takeaways, 20 giveaways).
TCU has to find a way to create more game-changing plays such as forced fumbles and interceptions. The Horned Frogs recovered only four fumbles last season.
Patterson once had a team recover 20 fumbles (2002) in a season.
On the bright side, TCU did have 16 interceptions, which ranks tied for seventh-most of the Patterson era. And the Frogs return the leaders in interceptions last season in safeties Trevon Moehrig (five) and Ar’Darius Washington (four).
Sacks, please
Patterson’s defenses have traditionally gotten pressure on the opposing quarterback year after year. The Frogs always seem to have a pass rusher or two flirting with double-digit sacks.
But last year marked the fewest number of sacks (22) of the Patterson era. That is less than half of Patterson’s best sack seasons (46 in 2003 and 45 in 2002).
TCU isn’t too far removed from 40-sack seasons in the Big 12, either, with 43 in 2016, 42 in 2017 and 40 in 2014.
The Frogs have to find ways to generate pressure on the opposing quarterback in 2020 if they want to win close games.
